Despite all the positive growth numbers coming out of Africa, the future looks bleak indeed over the shorter-term horizon.  Lots of autocracies, more and more weapons, porous borders, massive corruption, multinationals very willing to fund private armies, drug cartels discovering Africa as transhipment point, dislocation due to rapid swings in incentives (one estimate that I heard was that 1 out of every 5 young men in Burkina Faso had left their village to try their hand at artisanal gold mining, a horrific way to make a living and pursue l’aventure if there ever was one), the list goes on and on.  These same price and profit changes mean that inequality is growing rapidly, abetted by trade and financial liberalization, and growing emigration, legal and illegal.  Primary schooling is soaring, so there is a whole new generation of youth who have good reason to not “respect” their illiterate elders.  Add to this rapid telcom change as Internet and mobile phones penetrate ever deeper into urban and village societies, and you have a recipe for lots of social instability.  Yikes!

The upside of course is that most African economies are the worst performers in the world, and some of them really in recent human history, so while many will worsen in the coming years, eventually they will be better poised for rapid catch-up.  And also, African societies may be more resilient, because of their informal organization and self-sufficiency, to large-scale global threats that may challenge wealthy economies that rely on massive specialization.

So much for Tuesday philosophizing.