National statistics tell one part of the story, and Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita has been fairly steadily growing at about 2% per year for 20 years (but starting at a $500 per person base, that means the country is just arriving at the $1,000 per year income threshold….).  But a bigger part of the story is hard to quantify, and that is the amazing expansion of opportunities available.  20 years ago, hardly anyone in rural Burkina Faso attended secondary school  let alone graduated and went on to college.  Now, maybe 10% of rural youth are in secondary school, and universities and technical colleges are sprouting up everywhere.  Secondary and tertiary education have grown very rapidly.  Back of the envelope… There are maybe 2,000,000 youth who should be in secondary school, and the number enrolled went from maybe 10,000 to maybe 200,000 in the past 20 years… doubling around 4 times, so a growth rate of above 10% per year in enrollment.

While many commentators bemoan the poor state of Burkina Faso’s infrastructure, the fact is that infrastructure has also growth rapidly, largely due to the private sector.  Banks, cell phones, transport vehicles, and yes even road are far more extensive than 20 years ago.

It is true that those 200,000 secondary school students and graduates are not able to do much with their school learning, and much of the infrastructure is unproductive (even cell phones are probably more about consuming social networks than enhancing productivity).  But the opportunities for the economy are enormously changed.   Once the neighbors get settled, Burkina Faso’s economy should expand rapidly.

Today was election day in Burkina, for parliament and local offices… if it goes well, and opposition forces are able to engineer a peaceful transition from Blaise Compaoré at the national level in 2015, there is good reason for optimism.