OK, pure speculation ensures, but it seems worthwhile to ask, what’s the two year scenario now that France has entered what for Francois Hollande is a place where he has no idea where he is going…. I think France could have stayed out for years, doing a lot of creative support for civic organizations and staying confident that radical jihadi’s would eventually implode, and the situation basically remaining as in the past six months…. so that is my counterfactual against the following possibilities.

1.  Stable frontlines for years, between an Islamist north attractive to jihadis everywhere and a 1960ish Diem-style “who knows what’s going on?” regime “rules” in Bamako and the money flows at a billion a year rate so all the militaries, contractors, diplomats, restaurant entrepreneurs are happy.

2.  Unlikely successful takeover of northern Mali by Malian army backed by French airpower and supported by  CEDEAO troops from Burkina, Nigeria, etc.  All the towns will have to be occupied, patrolled, ruled, etc.  The occupiers will continually be threatened with kidnappings.  Was very easy in Darfur for all sides to take advantage of basic rule of thumb of occupiers- don’t shoot at anyone because they might shoot back, so just give them keys to the LandRover….  France and Burkina have to be ready for lots of extra-judicial killing.  Maybe drones will do it… oh these 20 people killed?  Our intel said they were terrorists.  They weren’t?  Sorry we’ll improve intel.  This strategy working real well in Afghanistan, Pakistan.

3.  Islamists score quick victories against Sanogo forces, and the Malian military self-destructs, so new paramilitaries formed by France, other players, who forget Geneva Convention and just go all out.  Cote d’Ivoire.  But Islamists are not Gbagbo.  No head to cut off/capture.  Soon paramilitaries decide more fun to rule fiefdoms in Mali than patrol Sahara.  Dem Rep Congo for 10 years.

4.  Islamists run away and Tuaregs say hey second-class citizenry was actually a pretty good deal can we have that back again.  Yeah right.  Sanogo and his group take over.  Immediately denounce neo-colonialism.

What I want to know….

1.  Who is taking control of the $500 m per year paid to Mali by the gold mining companies?

2.  Who is organizing Malians in France for effective civic action?

3.  How much are the French paying off Sanogo to operate in Mali?  Is that the cost of doing business?