Some scenarios for October 30 in #Burkina Faso #lwili

  • Opposition very organized, very disciplined, gets those 500,000 people out to Kosyam and basically sits down at the gates until Compaoré is forced to resign. Massive peaceful civil disobedience.  Shut the city down. Tahrir Square-like.  Roch, Zepherin and Salif and Benewende agree to go that route. Set up a big tent in front of Kosyam.
  • Opposition disorganized, tries to get people out to Kosyam, but bad job, security forces use tear gas, get groups to start running away, provocateurs and frustrated youth start looting, security forces stand by and do nothing.
  • Opposition takes over National Assembly building and central Ouagadougou, declares itself legitimate government.  Just bypass Kosyam.  Run central government.  Roch, Zeph, Salif and Benewende would have to agree.  Hmmm.
  • Opposition says “We won!” and let’s Compaoré stay, trusting that he really will step down in December 2015.  Of course, there will be a dozen reasons why the election will have to be postponed.

What others seem likely?

About mkevane

Economist at Santa Clara University and Director of Friends of African Village Libraries.
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