Michael Kevane

First, contrary to Diamond’s claim, there is nothing that contradicts tropical medicine and agricultural science in claiming that these are not major factors shaping differences in national prosperity. That these geographic factors cannot by themselves account for prosperity is illustrated by an empirical pattern we discuss—the “reversal of fortune.” Among the countries colonized by Europeans, those that were more prosperous before colonization ended up as relatively less prosperous today. This is prima facie evidence that, at least in the sample that makes up almost half of the countries in the world, geographic factors cannot account—while institutional ones can—for differences in prosperity as these factors haven’t changed, while fortunes have. Academic research also shows that once the effect of institutions is properly controlled for, there is no evidence that geographic factors have a significant impact on prosperity today.Similarly, major improvements in health technology starting in the 1940s have made significant headway against diseases and have led to unparalleled increases in life expectancy in many parts of the world. But they have not led to faster growth in these areas over the last sixty years in contrast to what would have been expected if the disease burden were a crucial determinant of prosperity.

via ‘Why Nations Fail’ by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson | The New York Review of Books.

Van Der Merwe is what’s become known around the world as a “microbrewer” – a rarity in Africa, where the beer industry is dominated by immense corporations that mass-produce the continent’s most popular alcoholic beverage. He’s at the vanguard of what he hopes in the future will result in increasing numbers of Africans turning away from “bland factory beer” and towards “microbrews,” made with “absolutely no enhancers or unnatural additives being used anywhere in the brewing process.”

Van Der Merwe, however, acknowledges that his quest may remain unfulfilled.

“Brewing beers on such a small scale is virtually unknown in Africa. Africans remain very loyal to the commercial, mass-produced beers and many aren’t willing to experiment with others.

via Zimbabwean Makes Beer at One of Africa’s Few Microbreweries.

Gonja Meat Company is a vertically integrated agribusiness engaged in the slaughter, processing and sale of fresh hygienic meat. The existing practices in Ghana’s meat industry hardly meet food safety standards. Gonja seeks to produce high quality and affordable meats using locally raised livestock, processed in the company’s abattoir and sold through its own sanitary outlet stores. Its offerings will include fresh cut poultry and meat as well as packaged, kitchen-ready products including hamburger patties, sausages, corned beef, roast beef, ham, bacon, kilishi and smoked meat. Gonja owns a full value chain from abattoir located in Kumasi, Ghana, processing plant and retail outlets. The integration model gives the company absolute control of quality, eliminates costly middlemen and offers savings to customers. Gonja will buy livestock from local farmers and add value to the economy. The slaughterhouse opened in 2004 to provide the local butchers with a modern abattoir that conformed to international food safety standards. Gonja had no control of the meat once it left for the market. The butchers continued to disregard sanitation. Gonja changed its model by building a processing plant with outlet store so we could control the whole supply chain.

via African Diaspora Marketplace Awardees | African Diaspora Marketplace.

Emeka Okafor is an entrepreneur and venture catalyst who lives in New York City.He is the curator of Maker Faire Africa.He was the director for TED Global 2007 that took place in Arusha,Tanzania.In addition he is a member of the TED fellowship team.His interests include sustainable technologies in the developing world and paradigm breaking technologies in general. His blog, Timbuktu Chronicles seeks to spur dialogue in areas of entrepreneurship, technology and the scientific method as it impacts Africa.

via Timbuktu Chronicles.

I read about this company, SoleRebels, co-founded by Bethlehem Tilahun Alemu, from Ethiopia.  I famously don’t buy or need anything.  I mean it… I’m an original frugal recycler child of Depression-age-parents-type …. But I am tempted to buy some shoes from them. They look kind of cool.  Maybe I’ll get some from someone as an Xmas present! 😉

MITT ROMNEY’S latest controversial remark, about the role of culture in explaining why some countries are rich and powerful while others are poor and weak, has attracted much comment. I was especially interested in his remark because he misrepresented my views and, in contrasting them with another scholar’s arguments, oversimplified the issue.It is not true that my book “Guns, Germs and Steel,” as Mr. Romney described it in a speech in Jerusalem, “basically says the physical characteristics of the land account for the differences in the success of the people that live there. There is iron ore on the land and so forth.”That is so different from what my book actually says that I have to doubt whether Mr. Romney read it. My focus was mostly on biological features, like plant and animal species, and among physical characteristics, the ones I mentioned were continents’ sizes and shapes and relative isolation. I said nothing about iron ore, which is so widespread that its distribution has had little effect on the different successes of different peoples.

via Mitt Romney’s Search for Simple Answers – NYTimes.com.

Dropbox has turned into a big scam where you strategize and pay for attic space to store junk… know what I mean?  It’s beneath us!

“By taxing estates heavily at death the State marks its condemnation of the selfish  millionaire’s unworthy life. It is desirable that nations should go much further in this direction.”

See the original article “Wealth” in The North American Review Volume 0148 Issue 391 (June 1889).

Chinese Leader Calls for Strong Moves to Offset Slowdown

Source: NY Times

Premier Wen Jiabao of China warned on Sunday of “huge downward pressure” on the Chinese economy, in the clearest expression yet of concern at the top of the country’s leadership about a sharp slowdown in recent months.

During a weekend inspection tour of east-central China, Mr. Wen called for the government to “preset and fine-tune its policies in a more aggressive manner,” using fiscal and monetary tools to offset the economic slowdown as much as possible. But he also tried to reassure the public, saying the economy was “running at a generally stable pace,” said Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency.

Mr. Wen largely attributed the slowdown to weak demand from overseas, particularly Europe with its faltering economies. But in separate remarks on Saturday, he reaffirmed a government policy of making real estate prices more affordable by banning real estate speculation.

That policy has played a central role in China’s economic slowdown, as housing construction has slowed to a crawl except for low-income housing. Developers across the country have laid off huge numbers of workers as construction sites from the steamy factory cities of Guangdong in the southeast to manufacturing and logistics hubs like Xi’an in the northwest have cut back this year from three shifts working around the clock, seven days a week, to one day shift on weekdays.

via Chinese Leader Calls for Strong Moves to Offset Slowdown – Democratic Underground.

Saw this while on a hike to Duck Lake, near Lake Alpine, up past Arnold, CA.  Very striking.

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The other day on “On the Media” with Brooke Gladstone, I hear while driving up to San Francisco, a story from Radiolab about positive publication bias and regression to the mean.  The story involves a study done some years ago that found that people who were asked to write down a detailed description of a bank robbery seen on video, right after watching the video, performed worse, not better ,at recall than a control group that was not prompted to remember details of the bank robber.  Attempts to replicate found the measured difference fading away.

Regression to the mean?  Positive publication bias?

No, the piece emphasized something else.  The finding of a difference between treatment and control gradually faded towards zero, rather than bouncing around.  The author speculated… perhaps the “ether of reality” was affected by scientific observation (by psychologists… and others too?).  Human interaction and minds keep changing when scientists observe stuff even if the minds are not aware of the observations.

Preposterous!  But then I realized.  Hmmm.  The interviewer never asked how many replication studies had been done.  Sounded like three or four.  The interviewer never asked whether any other replication studies had “smooth” regression to the mean rather than a bounce around.  The interviewer never asked any of a dozen other obvious questions.  And THEN I realized… it was all tongue in cheek… because they commented on how the original study was so compelling that it would be talked about at “dinner parties,” and now here was another finding so compelling that it also would be talked about at dinner parties.

So NPR kindly provided me with a non-study finding that I could talk about that evening.  For free.

I knew it.  But the social scientist in me says he doesn’t really offer details about this evidence.  How would it be obtained, one wonders? Randomized trials from birth to age 25? Track the Reading West Africa students for ten years after their “exposure” to Burkina!  But anyway, one more benefit of not being germ-obsessed… I’ve always been the opposite…

Increasing evidence suggests that the alarming rise in allergic and autoimmune disorders during the past few decades is at least partly attributable to our lack of exposure to microorganisms that once covered our food and us. As nature’s blanket, the potentially pathogenic and benign microorganisms associated with the dirt that once covered every aspect of our preindustrial day guaranteed a time-honored co-evolutionary process that established “normal” background levels and kept our bodies from overreacting to foreign bodies.

via Let’s Add a Little Dirt to Our Diet – NYTimes.com.

Azaz Shami ‏@3ozaz

Salama Wardani to be deported out of Sudan #SudanRevolts

via (13) Twitter / Search – #SudanRevolts.