Many of the most bullish forecasts of China’s economic future are based, more or less, on extrapolation. For more than three decades, its economic output per person has been rising at an extraordinary annual rate of 6 to 10 percent, climbing rapidly toward levels in the richest nations. If that continues for a couple of decades, the bullish forecasts will prove accurate.But if you look at the long arc of economic history, such performance would be a remarkable aberration. That’s the argument that the Harvard economists Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers make in a new working paper. In short, past performance does not predict future results. What tends to happen, rather, is “reversion to the mean”: Countries having long periods of abnormal growth tend to revert to something around 2 percent growth, closer to the long-term global average.“China’s experience from 1977 to 2010 already holds the distinction of being the only instance, quite possibly in the history of mankind,” with sustained super-rapid growth for more than 32 years, they write. “Why will growth slow? Mainly, because that is what rapid growth does.”There are plenty of other China pessimists out there, who note everything from aging demographics to years of politically driven investment that may offer poor returns, to an economy trying to make the perilous transition away from investment spending and toward consumers. Just last week, a Conference Board report argued that China’s economy would slow as a credit and investment bubble deflated.
Blogs I Follow
- Are you joking here New York Times? So what if it is James Heckman… the sample size is 37!
- Trump’s “America First” rhetoric? William Wyler had it pegged back in 1946.
- For everyone who served on a committee that had to write a report
- Maybe you studied abroad in Spain? Then you should watch El fin de ETA!
- Economic justice and basic income
- Activité à la bibliothèque de Kaya
- Une délégation de FAVL chez le Dima de Boussouma
- Les femmes mentors de Barsalogho II visitent la bibliothèque de Barsalogho
- Visite de la Coordinatrice régionale de CRS/Afrique de l'Ouest à la bibliothèque de Boussouma
- Sortie de supervision à la bibliothèque de Sebba
- Deuxième discussion du club de lecture à Bantogdo
- Don de livres en langues nationales
- Des journaux planètes enfants et planètes j'aime lire dans les bibliothèques de FAVL-BBII
- Don de livres à la bibliothèque communautaire de Zimtanga
- Books delivered to three Ghana libraries
- Camp de lecture à l'école Silmiyiri de Ouagadougou
- Great article about one of the FAVL donors who helped make a library happen in Burkina Faso
- AYA Afrika Foundation helps continue after school reading program in libraries in Ghana
- New motor bike for FAVL/CESRUD Ghana
- Visite guidée à la bibliothèque communautaire de Dablo