Category Archives: Teaching macroeconomics

More volatility in the global economy

Investors flocked to the relative safety of government bonds on Wednesday, pushing yields on United States Treasuries and on German bunds sharply lower. The yield on the 10-year United States Treasury note — a benchmark for many interest rates — … Continue reading

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Economics stand up comedy

By the time Bauman takes the stage, the packed house — looks like at least 200 people — are cheering and clapping for the world’s first stand-up economist. He grabs the mic and starts his set by admitting just how … Continue reading

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Data, asking questions, and disaster (the Thiokol graph)

The following two graphs are well-known; I was talking about them in class today.  The Thiokol engineer’s ‘chart” was unreadable, and so symptomatic of a culture of not really asking questions that challenged higher-ups.           Here … Continue reading

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I.M.F. Lowers World Growth Forecast

The fund brought its estimate for global growth down to 3.3 percent from 3.7 percent, and reduced its forecast for 2015 to 3.8 percent. The fund pointed to weaker growth in China, Europe, Japan and Latin America Brazil in particular … Continue reading

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AIG Bailout trial underway

The first witness called by Boies, Scott Alvarez, the general counsel of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, testified about the credit terms extended by the government to financial institutions earlier in 2008 and about the terms offered to AIG.Under … Continue reading

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Interesting controversy over managing government debt and interest rates, Fed vs Treasury

The Fed has sought to stimulate the economy by purchasing large quantities of long-term Treasury securities. The campaign, which is scheduled to end in October, aims to force investors to buy other kinds of debt and, in the face of … Continue reading

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Two films about the rotten core of capitalism ….

The first is The Jewel, an Italian movie based on the 2003 $20 billion Parmalat bankruptcy, still apparently Europe’s biggest bankruptcy. The second in Capital, a French movie by Costa-Gavras, loosely based on the shenanigans leading up to the 2008 … Continue reading

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Did the New York Fed bail out Goldman Sachs via AIG?

The Starr case is starting tomorrow, and hopefully will extract and make public important testimony and evidence. Former Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who orchestrated the bailout from his previous perch as New York Fed president, insists that extracting these … Continue reading

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Modeling the psychological costs of inflation… just talking about this in macro class!

People dislike inflation.  Shiller[1996] provides survey evidence that the public are greatly concerned about inflation and feel strong antipathy towards it. Inflation distresses people because they fear that rising prices will outpace wages. It also angers people because they feel … Continue reading

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Regulating banks… the capture of the Federal Reserve

This does not surprise me at all.  Too many institutions develop cultures of “do not ask embarrassing questions in public” and then define every opportunity to ask a question as a public occasion, and so no questions are ever asked. … Continue reading

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Nice summary of recent exchange rate movements

Some of the dollar’s recent strength has come against the euro, following a series of statements made by the European Central Bank’s president, Mario Draghi, that were interpreted by currency traders to be supportive of a weak euro. Many European … Continue reading

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The U.S. Employment Situation – August 2014

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care. In … Continue reading

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U.S. current account deficit continues apace

So $500 billion a year. With a population of 300 million, this is about $1500 per person per year. Unfortunately for me, as director of FAVL, that means sustained appreciation of dollar fairly unlikely. For the three months ending in … Continue reading

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Bad macro news from Europe

This was supposed to be the year that the European economy decisively broke free of its shackles. But after a dismal round of economic growth reports on Thursday, the main question appears to be whether the eurozone will avoid tumbling … Continue reading

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Teaching macro: Inequality and growth according to Standard & Poor’s

Economists at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services are the authors of the straightforwardly titled “How Increasing Inequality is Dampening U.S. Economic Growth, and Possible Ways to Change the Tide.” The fact that S.&P., an apolitical organization that aims to produce … Continue reading

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Janet Yellen in 2005: What is obvious to everyone is not a prediction of mine.

Delivery October 18, 2005, almost three years before Lehman bankruptcy, and a full year before housing prices finally did begin their downward spin. In addition to the uncertainties raised by higher energy prices, there are downside risks to economic growth … Continue reading

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Teaching macro: Mishkin and Iceland and “Inside Job”

“Inside Job” filmmaker Charles Ferguson replied to Mishkin: First, Prof Mishkin alleges that I focused exclusively on his report on Iceland. But in an interview in September 2009 lasting more than an hour, and for which I can supply both … Continue reading

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Teaching macro: Preludes to the Icelandic Financial Crisis

Preludes to the Icelandic Financial Crisis Iceland became one of the symbols of the fourth wave of the financial crisis, since the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century. Between 2003 and 2008, the market value of the … Continue reading

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Teaching macro: U.S. Economy Grew at 4% Rate in Second Quarter

The United States economy rebounded heartily in the spring after a dismal winter, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday, growing at an annual rate of 4 percent from April through June and surpassing economists’ expecations.In its initial estimate for the … Continue reading

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Teaching macroeconomics: Really bad article from vox.com

After starting with a ridiculous teaser headline (basically, “Janet Yellen doesn’t want you to get a raise”) the article doesn’t get even to an intermediate macroeconomics textbook level. But wage growth contributes to inflation (your pay boost is your customers’ … Continue reading

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