Zéphirin Diabré sounds like a Republican moralizer here

I wish I knew more about what he has in mind, exactly.  Burkina Faso has more divorced people, and kids of divorced parents maybe suffer some psychological traumas… but are those traumas greater than growing up in a home without love?  With parents fighting all the time?  And in the context of Burkina, with elderly women forced to leave villages after witchcraft accusations, and female circumcision, and huckster evangelists on every corner, it seems like an odd thing to worry about.  Do his pollsters tell him this is what likely voters want to hear?  That the kids are messed up and need to be put on the straight and narrow?

Le dernier point de désaccord, c’est la manière dont nous gérons notre société. Nous ne disons pas que le pouvoir doit jouer au gendarme pour nous imposer des comportements. Il y a quand même une orientation à donner, surtout qu’on est un pays qui a une histoire, des traditions et des valeurs. Et la force publique, l’Etat doit faire en sorte de pouvoir les inculquer au maximum possible. Malheureusement, on a le sentiment qu’il y a une sorte de démission totale. On a une société qui va à vau-l’eau. Un enseignant m’a raconté que dans sa classe, il a des enfants traumatisés, parce que leurs parents ont divorcé. Il dit que ces enfants n’arrivent pas à travailler normalement. Les enfants qu’on abandonne dans les rues. Ce sont des phénomènes de société qu’un pays doit prendre à bras-le-corps. Comment prépare-t- on notre jeunesse ? Aujourd’hui, on peut aimer ou ne pas aimer, mais les Asiatiques modèlent leurs citoyens pour demain. Les Etats-Unis modèlent leurs citoyens pour demain. Nous, quel citoyen nous fabriquons pour demain ? Voilà quelques éléments qui nous opposent au régime en place.

via L’invité de la Redaction : Zéphirin Diabré, président de l’UPC “La politique est un engagement …, pas une profession pour moi” – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

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Zéphirin Diabré the man of the hour in Burkina Faso

Diabré is a former deputy of the National Assembly in the 1990s, a Minister of Finance, he then served a time at UNDP, and also the French nuclear group Areva.  He was a fellow for a year at Harvard (where I met him for breakfast!).  So he well-acquainted with the corridors of power (me!) and a formidable challenge to the Compaoré brothers.  The elections of December 2 have led to big shakeups in the CDP, the party of President Compaoré.

RFI has a good interview with Diabré (see below for the link).  This passage worried me.

J’ai aussi des divergences sur la manière dont la société est gérée. Le Burkina Faso a une histoire qui nous a enseigné des valeurs de travail, d’intégrité, de sobriété. J’ai comme l’impression qu’il y a un laisser-aller à ce niveau-là. Et on le voit bien dans la manière dont la corruption se développe dans notre pays, que nous ne pouvons pas accepter.

Are we back to the same old moralizing “balayeur” language of many an African opposition leader and coup leader?  The whole “cleansing of society” stuff?  Get more concrete M. Diabré please!

via Zéphirin Diabré sur RFI: «Les Burkinabè souhaitent que notre pays fasse l’expérience de l’alternance» – Burkina Faso – RFI.

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Hijab and self-image

Perusing the catalog of a children’s publisher Kalimat in Emirates, suddenly realized that almost none of the women and girls depicted were wearing head scarves.  Says something about what professional women want their children to think is “normal”: no head scarf.

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Make cracks about Stata, you gotta listen then to original Grog Moin from Haiti, and a cute dance version!

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Transposing and reshaping with string in Stata

stata transpose string variable without xpose « Economics should be open.

http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?xpose

http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/modules/reshapel.htm

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100 pages of projects for South Sudan and no libraries, no books… sigh.

South Sudan, poorest place on earth, but with a LOT of aid and oil money… large swathes of public services are run by the United Nations.  Lee Crawford points to the newly issued Humanitarian Appeal for South Sudan and I was shocked, just shocked, to see no mention of libraries (nor even of books).  Now Sudan more education needs than any place on earth, but surely piloting small primary school libraries open to the public should be a key element of any education policy.  Why spend enormous amounts of money helping kids learn to read if for the next 10 years they will not have any books to read?  Their literacy will remain very superficial.  And what’s more, it’s the literacy of the most capable, the best readers, the most ambitious, that will be stifled by the lack of books.

South Sudan ranks at the bottom of global education indicators.  Only 44 per cent of children are enrolled in primary school.  Secondary school figures are even worse, with 1.6 per cent enrollment.   Conflict, natural disasters and displacement compound these low rates. More than 55,900 school-aged children were affected by emergencies in 2012, with Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile the most impacted states.

Teacher capacity in South Sudan is exceptionally low, with only 44 per cent of teachers having completed primary school education.16 In Unity and Jonglei, the states most vulnerable to emergencies, the ratio of pupils to qualified teachers is 413:1 and 218:1, far exceeding the national average of 198:1.17 These figures highlight the critical need for emergency-specific teacher training. Emergency life-skills, education on landmine awareness, HIV prevention, protection principals, and hygiene and health messages are particularly critical.

I’d love to see simple children’s books on all these issues.

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Basic reinforcement of personhood for adolescent girls in West Africa

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Ross Douthat and Tyler Cowen need to read Sinclair Lewis’ Main Street

I am reading Sinclair Lewis’ Main Street, over the last few days, and I could swear one of the characters in the small town of Gopher Prairie, about which Lewis feels so ambivalent, mouths exactly Douthat’s lament… and that was in 1915!  I guess if you have to write a column/blog every single day, you get decadent and lazy and shrug off basic sacrifices like thinking of new things to say.  One thing I love about conservatives, they so reliably exclude (“our” civilization, not yours).

I basically agree with Ross Douthat here by on December 2, 2012

The retreat from child rearing is, at some level, a symptom of late-modern exhaustion — a decadence that first arose in the West but now haunts rich societies around the globe. It’s a spirit that privileges the present over the future, chooses stagnation over innovation, prefers what already exists over what might be. It embraces the comforts and pleasures of modernity, while shrugging off the basic sacrifices that built our civilization in the first place.

His link is here, and I willingly admit that I am in some ways part of the problem.

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Cell phones make people feel bad

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How to understand African economies like that of Burkina Faso

National statistics tell one part of the story, and Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita has been fairly steadily growing at about 2% per year for 20 years (but starting at a $500 per person base, that means the country is just arriving at the $1,000 per year income threshold….).  But a bigger part of the story is hard to quantify, and that is the amazing expansion of opportunities available.  20 years ago, hardly anyone in rural Burkina Faso attended secondary school  let alone graduated and went on to college.  Now, maybe 10% of rural youth are in secondary school, and universities and technical colleges are sprouting up everywhere.  Secondary and tertiary education have grown very rapidly.  Back of the envelope… There are maybe 2,000,000 youth who should be in secondary school, and the number enrolled went from maybe 10,000 to maybe 200,000 in the past 20 years… doubling around 4 times, so a growth rate of above 10% per year in enrollment.

While many commentators bemoan the poor state of Burkina Faso’s infrastructure, the fact is that infrastructure has also growth rapidly, largely due to the private sector.  Banks, cell phones, transport vehicles, and yes even road are far more extensive than 20 years ago.

It is true that those 200,000 secondary school students and graduates are not able to do much with their school learning, and much of the infrastructure is unproductive (even cell phones are probably more about consuming social networks than enhancing productivity).  But the opportunities for the economy are enormously changed.   Once the neighbors get settled, Burkina Faso’s economy should expand rapidly.

Today was election day in Burkina, for parliament and local offices… if it goes well, and opposition forces are able to engineer a peaceful transition from Blaise Compaoré at the national level in 2015, there is good reason for optimism.

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“Bull” by Mo Yan

I just read the story, by 2012 Nobel prize winner Mo Yan, last night.  Pretty riveting, but also hard to understand without the full context.  You wonder about how much is working as a broad allegory (and what it might mean) of local society? Of national zeitgeist under the Communist “to get rich is glorious” Party… an opening image is of the town butcher forcing formaldehyde into a dead pig to pump it up.  I’m no literary critic, for that I rely on Betsey at Mookse, you can click through to her comments.  An excerpt:

“Bull”, by Mo Yan, is an excerpt from a novel set in a rural Chinese village where the “blood money” of commerce rules. Blood is almost a character in this story; early on, the narrator tells us that as a child he could smell the butcher coming, because “blood…doesn’t wash off.” The story revolves around bloody commerce – – the slaughterhouse, the violence of its markets, the willingness of the merchant to cheat his customer or poison him, the mysterious ways of the salesman, and the way a whole society can itself become, in the wake of commerce, a slaughterhouse. This is no tale of the ‘man in the gray flannel suit’. By chapter’s end, the hero is covered and clothed in bull’s blood.

You can also read the story here.  It is carefully constructed, even in translation and as an excerpt from a novel.  To me it worked just as well as Jeffrey Eugenides excerpt from The Marriage Plot published some time ago.  That is, it piqued me enough to want to read the novel.

Cross-posted from FAVL blog.

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To my peeps in the Bay Area… Rainy Day Dream Away

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Ouattara dissolves Ivorian government over marriage law: must be more to story than this

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara has sacked his government in a row over a new marriage law which would make wives joint heads of the household.  Mr Ouattara’s party supported the changes but the members of the ruling coalition were opposed.  The strongest opposition came from the PDCI, which backed Mr Ouattara in the disputed November 2010 election.  Analysts say the splits highlight the continued political instability in the world’s major cocoa producer…..Like many African countries, Ivory Coast’s law currently recognises the husband as head of the household, responsible for all major decisions – a situation Mr Ouattara’s RDR wanted to change

via BBC News – Ouattara dissolves Ivorian government over marriage law.

 

 

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Education and health and fertility in the United States

A quick glance at a paper by McCrary and Royer.  They find:

1. School entry policies have large effects on schooling at motherhood: one-fourth of young Texas mothers born after the school entry date have a year less education than they otherwise would, had they been born before the entry date. For California, our estimate is one-seventh.

Furthermore, using this variation in education due to the school entry policies, we reach two key conclusions:
1. Education does not significantly impact fertility: women born just before and after the school entry date are equally likely to become mothers and give birth at similar ages.
2. Education has generally small, but possibly heterogeneous, effects on infant health: women born just before and after the entry date give birth to children of similar health, as proxied by birth weight and prematurity. There is some suggestive evidence of different effects of education on low birth weight by race and ethnicity.

Without reading the paper (I was looking for something else) I wonder that economists don’t have better editors and strive for more clarity… here in particular since most likely all the variation in education is at the margin of around 11th grade (some drop out, some do not go on to community college) so the real effect is that, “Another year of education after 11th grade does not affect fertility or infant health, and indeed did anyone really think it would have a big effect?”

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Geranium Cat’s Bookshelf: Thursbitch by Alan Garner

Thursbitch feels very much like a sequel to Red Shift to me, although the only connection is the intensity of its sense of place, and a setting geographically close, since Garner likes to write about the area around his home. It starts with a real story (just as Weirdstone began with a local legend): in 1755 salt-trader John Turner was found dead by the roadside after a heavy storm, and by his body was the print of a woman’s shoe. That he should have died so close to home, on a road he knew intimately, intrigued Garner, who began to tease out the reasons why his death might have occurred. His own explorations of a landscape that he had recently identified as being a possible site of the Green Chapel where Sir Gawain sought the Green Knight one legendary Christmas suggested a significance to the Christmas death of John Turner, and Garner’s packman, traveller of the Cheshire drove-roads, is a shaman, one of the last initiates of the rites of the Bull god. Pagan custom and legend are inscribed across the wild areas of Britain, evident to the walker today, and it’s not impossible to believe that there were secluded valleys where Christianity had never really caught on. And the coming of the Christian faith to Thursbitch is a painful transition, borne of grief, a contrast to the natural easiness of the bull rites.

via Geranium Cat’s Bookshelf: Thursbitch by Alan Garner.

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Inestimable Susan Straight, author of short-story “Mines” with a timely opinion piece

SOMETIMES life is like a fun-house mirror, the glass and then the real thing. I had just watched the TV show “The New Normal,” a comedy about what used to be called untraditional families, for the first time, and the same day I read about Mitt Romney’s son Tagg and his wife, Jennifer, having twins through a surrogate pregnancy, using the same surrogate mother they had back in 2009. A week later, a few choice remarks were made about single mothers in the presidential debate.

I laughed about it with my neighbor, C, who gave me her usual incredulous look and said, “For reals?” She hadn’t heard.

She had just stopped pumping breast milk for the last baby she delivered, who belonged to a wealthy couple in another state. She had to drive 45 miles every day back to the hospital with an ice chest because, she said, “They bought the milk, too.”

My block doesn’t fit into the neat 47 percent category, because a lot of people don’t get any government help, though they could use it. I’ve lived here for 25 years, got divorced 15 years ago (though my ex-husband comes by nearly every day). Another neighbor has been here for 18 years, and her husband left three years ago for a younger woman — midlife crisis, we joked, though she’s alone with an autistic son and only part-time work as a funeral and wedding singer. We bring each other food, help each other with kids and rides, and we hang on.

I’ve seen neighbors come and go, and I hope C stays forever. She was married at 16 years old, and she had two daughters before her husband was murdered. She married again, had three more children, and then that husband was convicted of a crime she can barely bring herself to mention to me. He’s in prison “forever, I hope.”

Now she’s married to F, who came to California 20 years ago from El Salvador. He works at an oil refinery, she works hourly assignments as a surgical tech, and last summer he had to sell his beloved motorcycle from my front yard for $600 so they could pay the utilities bill that went so high because of August heat.

via Making Babies, Just to Make Ends Meet – NYTimes.com.

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Cute, but the audience idolatry a little off-putting…. I’ve been able to be that kind of rabid “fan” who laughs and cheers at literally anything…. “a music stand”

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Justifications for spending public money….

A big part of development economics is about justifying expenditures of public monies.  Why are people better off with spending tax money this way? Who is better off?  Who is worse off? Why are those better off not able or willing to do it themselves?

In mainstream economics, where the presumption is that people are free to make economic choices (they are in a market economy), the arguments for public expenditures usually rely on “market failure.”  A particular category of good or service may exhibit some kind of external effect, a spillover, that means that private provision of the good or service would be relatively low compared with some ideal level that everyone might agree on.  (The provision of information itself is an important issue here.)  Urban planners and real estate developers are intimately familiar with this problem: your handsome building and attractive service raises rents and profits for nearby business, but they are not going to pay you for you to locate next to them.  So there is need for coordination.  Malls, of course, were a private-sector solution to the coordination problem (and another externality, the parking congestion problem!).  The function of government (or other large organizations) is to compel or induce the scaling of the sector to permit the spillovers.  Similarly, regulation and taxation limits bad spillovers.

Recently, in development economics, a new argument is being made.  It’s an old argument, very close to Musgrave’s merit goods, but it is now gussied up with a specific mechanism and experimental evidence.  The argument is that intervention may be needed because people who benefit from something are not capable of recognizing that they would benefit by more than the cost.  The paradigm example going around is clean water.  It takes so little (money, time) to get clean water, and the small investment in cleanliness is easily repaid with improved health (and so higher incomes), but poor people are not able to make the calculations because poverty imposes “cognitive challenges.”  Zwane (2012) quickly reviews and Shah, Mullainathan and Shafir (2012) provide the experiment result.

My first (and very quick) reaction to this line of thinking is that the argument has been made in a different way by the anti-recycle liberatarian crowd: the recycling meme inculcated since childhood makes it impossible for “rational” people to realize that the benefits of washing out a yogurt container are impossibly small compared with the cost (in terms of time).  Americans (in particular) are now cognitively impaired because of the recycle meme, no?  The point being, you can find a cognitive challenge under every rock, and do “we” want government spreading good memes and bad memes according to fashion?  What if government is convinced that pre-marital sex (or over-use of contraception! or insufficient family nurturing!) is bad for the poor but they are cognitively challenged and cannot recognize the negative effects?  Are posters called for (see below, substitute your bogey-man based on latest research on oatmeal published in Science)?

Well, that digression aside, spreading memes about good behavior and being a benevolent paternalist (this medicine is for your own good) has been a job of government and large organizations for 112 years, at least.  Growing up in Puerto Rico, my parents were fans of the graphic design work of Jack and Irene Delano, who were commissioned by the WPA to make posters.  Here’s their sanitation poster, put up everywhere in Puerto Rico.  I guess after seeing that every day, kids probably started shooing flies away and thinking it was disgusting to have flies on food.  In 15 years in Burkina, the only places I see posters like this are in the headquarters of NGO offices.

So maybe the research program is to better convince governments to do what everyone already knows is their job?  (The success of Kremer and Miguel in re-energizing de-worming… a result of the research result or a result of… Michael Kremer and Ted Miguel, development activists and friends of Bill Gates?)

A thought I have is that I’d rather see micro-experimental research about why government officials in charge of public health are “cognitively challenged” so that they don’t make the decisions to order 10,000 posters, the way the (colonial!) government of Porto Rico did back in 1941.  Incidentally, Bailey Ashford, after whom is named the main street of Condado, was the American military doctor who was instrumental in eradicating hookworm in Puerto Rico and later in southern United States, around 1900.  So that’s why I say 112 years.  Not that the Spanish in PR did nothing, and not that the Americans were all good.

Addendum 11/4: When I think of cell phone (mobile) adoption, or adoption of bottle-feeding, it strikes me that these are cases where the cognitive incapacity induced by scarcity salience did not operate… poor people adopt cell phones and bottle-feeding before clean water, even though they involve positive price purchases.  So there is still a “preference” or “information” angle to the problems, obviously.

Thanks Thane Kreiner for sending the link.

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Scary reporting from Adam Nossiter of NYT on Guinea-Bissau

Strictly for the Afro-pessimists….

Since the April 12 coup, more small twin-engine planes than ever are making the 1,600-mile Atlantic crossing from Latin America to the edge of Africa’s western bulge, landing in Guinea-Bissau’s fields, uninhabited islands and remote estuaries. There they unload their cargos of cocaine for transshipment north, experts say.

The fact that the army has put in place a figurehead government and that military officers continue to call the shots behind the scenes only intensifies the problem.

The political instability continued as soldiers attacked an army barracks on Oct. 21, apparently in an attempt to topple the government. A dissident army captain was arrested on an offshore island on Oct. 27 and accused of being the organizer of the countercoup attempt. Two critics of the government were also assaulted and then left outside the capital.

From April to July there were at least 20 landings in Guinea-Bissau of small planes that United Nations officials suspected were drug flights — traffic that could represent more than half the estimated annual cocaine volume for the region.

via Guinea-Bissau, After Coup, Is Drug-Trafficking Haven – NYTimes.com.

Daily Nation has more on the story of the coup and a picture of arrested Captain Pansau N’Tchama, accused of being the mastermind behind the October 21 attack after his arrest in Bolama, on the Bijagos archipelago.

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