Author Archives: mkevane

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About mkevane

Economist at Santa Clara University and Director of Friends of African Village Libraries.

“Reading Harry Potter lowers Americans’ opinions of Donald Trump, study finds”: When you read a headline like that, please click somewhere else

The are so many reasons why this should be buried. But maybe it can bring some attention to Friends of African Village Libraries? Mutz polled a nationally representative sample of 1,142 Americans in 2014, and again in 2016, asking about … Continue reading

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Lynn Scholl on how graduated drivers licenses for teens have huge effects in reducing car accident fatalities

For a paper I am working on, I am reviewing some of the econometric work that uses paired adjacent counties that straddle state borders to examine the effects of state-level policies.  There is a growing number of such papers, many … Continue reading

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Another #IGEL2016 paper: Anne Mangen on reading fiction

Anne Mangen from the Norwegian Reading Center reported on a replication effort (with Anezka Kuzmicova) of the widely reported Kidd and Castano 2013 paper on whether Chekhovian fiction produced more empathy than regular writing. The sample size was small, just … Continue reading

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Decline in the labor force participation rate

A short note from the St. Louis Fed suggests that much of the decline is anticipated demographic change and inevitably reversal of the extremely high participation rates in the early 2000s (A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor … Continue reading

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IMF projections for growth for Burkina Faso

What I hate about the IMF and World Bank is that very often they report growth rates in aggregate and not per capita. Burkina Faso’s population growth rate is about 2.8%, so these projections of 4%-5.2% are really 1.2%-2.4% growth … Continue reading

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Harassing the government of Puerto Rico: “I want my money.”

What the hedge funds can do that individual small investors cannot is constantly harass and nip the heels of Puerto Rico, thus possibly securing higher payment eventually.  Bloomberg summarizes the major suits against Puerto Rico that deal with debt repayment: … Continue reading

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Awesome complement-correction to Alan Blinder’s rather saccharine assessment in When the Music Stops

But after what seems an exhaustive review of a now voluminous record of transcripts, exhibits and other evidence from multiple official inquiries, Professor Ball concludes there is “no evidence” that the decision-makers “examined the adequacy of Lehman’s collateral, or that … Continue reading

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Helicopter money, by Willem Buiter

But James Hamilton last week provided a nicer, more intelligible, layman’s summary. A helicopter drop of money is a permanent /irreversible increase in the nominal stock of fiat base money with a zero nominal interest rate, which respects the intertemporal … Continue reading

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Short-run determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate over period 2011-14

A nice empirical application exercise of augmenting the interest parity approach to try to determine what is driving changes in expected exchange rates that then affect the current spot rate.  Here, the authors emphasize sovereign risk, that is, risk that … Continue reading

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IGEL 2016: Candice Burkett on how readers interpret fiction

At the recent IGEL meetings in Chicago I liked a paper by Candice Burkett about the correlates of more sophisticated interpretations of literary texts.  She and coauthor Susan Goldman measured how often students mentioned three kinds of indicators: basic gestures … Continue reading

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Illegal immigration in the U.S.

Fact Tank – November 19, 2015 The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. has stabilized in recent years after decades of rapid growth. But there have been shifts in the states where unauthorized immigrants live and the countries where … Continue reading

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What are the facts about crime in the United States?

Presumably we check in with the FBI.  If their statistics, however problematic,  are not “the facts” then I do not know what is. Here is the one paragraph of their latest annual report (yes, a one year lag). 09/28/15  Today, … Continue reading

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Someone found macroeconomics at the Republican convention!

About midway through the Republican platform, there appears this statement: “We support reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in high-risk investments.” It’s a head-scratcher, because reimposing Glass-Steagall would be an about-face for Republicans. The … Continue reading

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Time to Renegotiate Prepa Deal, according to Vicente Feliciano in Carribean Business

Opinion piece by Vicente Feliciano in Carribean Business: Agreements reached under duress come undone when the power of one party to impose the deal subsides. The agreement between the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (Prepa) and its bondholders was reached … Continue reading

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The Puerto Rico Oversight Board

A lot of power to the Puerto Rico Oversight Board.  The Congressional Research Service has a comprehensible survey of the Act.

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Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla: “Now we have more leverage.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/api/embed/iframe?id=V83mJsOrSAGnLadl5AMRKA

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Negative interest rates coming to a mortgage lender near you… seems like the European financial system is adapting

Major beneficiaries include Macroeconomics textbook publishers. In all jurisdictions, banks, motivated by deposit withdrawal concerns, have been reluctant to pass negative rates through to retail depositors. Partly to limit the resulting impact on their net interest margins, some central banks … Continue reading

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Careers in finance: Evaluating MBS and CDO bundles of thousands of mortgages

There is a very nice intro at The Third Way on securitization (in the context of The Big Short).  A nice thing they do is link to the SEC filing for a CDO offered by Long Beach Mortgage (that was … Continue reading

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Elena Ferrante’s My Brilliant Friend

I am about three years behind the times, but what a phenomenal novel.  Very small in its subject, the childhood friendship of two girls, from about ten to sixteen, growing up in Naples in the 1950s, the book nevetheless feels … Continue reading

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Others do the reading so we don’t have to: Critique of the “gender neutral parental leave favors male academics” paper

Regarding the 30% tenure rate, it turns out the key words are “at their first jobs.” This analysis compared people who got tenure at their first job to everybody else — which means that leaving for a better outside offer … Continue reading

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