Why is it hard to operate a small non-profit in Burkina Faso?

The military takeover and civilian transition have left unclear who is in charge of rural communes, and hence public libraries.  But hopefully will be straightened out soon.

Le lieutenant-colonel Isaac Zida assure la continuité de l’Etat jusqu’à la remise du pouvoir au président de la transition Michel Kafando. En attendant, il a dissous, dans un communiqué publié à la Radio nationale ce 18 novembre 2014, tous les conseils municipaux et les Conseils régionaux du Burkina Faso.Les communes rurales et urbaines seront désormais dirigées par des délégations spéciales. Un communiqué antérieur avait enjoint les responsables de ces communes à assurer la continuité de l’Etat, sans pour autant procéder à certaines activités comme les lotissements.

via Burkina : Les Conseils municipaux et régionaux sont dissous « Burkina « Actualité « L’Actualité du Burkina 24h/24.

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Tim Taylor’s nice discussion of ‘secular stagnation”

Basically, if population is getting older, and new investments (software) do not generate much employment and hence multiplier effects (and indeed induce people to work less, because what is better than checking your Facebook page all day long?) then GDP growth will slow.

Hansen argued that an economy needed strong and healthy levels of investment if it was to maintain full employment. He wrote: “For it is an indisputable fact that the prevailing economic system has never been able to reach reasonably full employment or the attainment of its currently realizable real income without making large investment expenditures.”

via CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Secular Stagnation: Back to Alvin Hansen.

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The economic policy pessimists are having a field day with Japan

As you may have guessed, this is not some special problem that only Japan has. The whole world is in the middle of that same demographic transition, in more or less dramatic forms. Productivity in the richest countries is growing more slowly than it did during the decades after World War II, which means that the world as a whole is not innovating as fast as it used to. Again, fiscal stimulus is not going to fix that. Fiscal and monetary policy can smooth temporary fluctuations in output. I’m less than convinced that they can, by themselves, improve our economic capacity. Oh, you can make a huge mess with really bad decisions: deflation, hyperinflation, nationalization, confiscatory taxation, and debt crises can have nasty impacts on your economic output that will outlive your macroeconomic mistakes. But ultimately, fiscal and monetary stimulus are better tools for managing temporary crises than long-term growth problems.

via The Limits of Good Economic Policy – Bloomberg View.

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A dangerous distraction… don’t learn now, forever suffer consequences!

Here’s another study that reflects poorly on mobile devices — cell phones this time — in the classroom. Duncan, Hoekstra, and Wilcox 2012 investigated cell phone use by students in five introductory science courses through in-class observations, student surveys, and semi-structured interviews with students. They found that a there was a significant negative correlation between cell phone use and final grades and b students underestimated how frequently they used their cell phones during class. It’s significant that these five courses weren’t traditional lecture courses. Each course used clicker-facilitated peer instruction exercises to engage student during class. Even in these active learning classrooms, cell phones posed a dangerous distraction to students.

via Taking Notes in an Active Learning Classroom: Does It Even Matter?.

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Japan’s goes into recession

The preliminary economic report, issued by the Cabinet Office, showed that gross domestic product fell at an annualized pace of 1.6 percent in the quarter through September.That added to the previous quarter’s much larger decline, which the government now puts at 7.3 percent, a slightly worse figure than in its last estimate of 7.1 percent.Japan’s still half-completed sales-tax increase, an all-consuming political issue here, has also become a target of concern for leaders in the United States. Last week Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew urged Japanese and European policy makers to do more to stimulate their economies. “If things are really bad in Europe and Japan, if there’s a real slowdown in China, that’s a headwind in the United States that we don’t need,” Mr. Lew said.  The surprise Japanese recession underscores the difficulties faced by Mr. Abe, who won power two years ago on a pledge to reinvigorate the economy and end his country’s long era of wage and consumer-price declines. His agenda has focused largely on stimulus measures, in particular a vastly expanded program of government bond purchases by the central bank. Yet its impact, economists say, has been dulled by the tax increase, which was approved under a previous government.  The tax plan was intended to curb Japan’s immense government debt, which at about two and a half years’ national economic output is the largest in the developed world. But there are concerns that after years of sluggish wage growth, consumer confidence is still too weak handle the increase. Instead of solving the debt problem, heavier taxes could simply push the economy back into a downward slide.

via Defying Expectations, Japan’s Economy Falls Into Recession – NYTimes.com.

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Zida appeals to international community: #Burkina case is different!

I tend to agree.  This is not the time for automatic application of rules about sanctions without nuance.

Quant à la communauté internationale, tout en saluant une fois de plus sa contribution, nous l’exhortons à continuer de nous accompagner pour une sortie de crise définitive. A cet effet, il serait souhaitable que la spécificité burkinabè soit reconnue dans toute sa dimension et que subséquemment, les résultats auxquels les concertations que nous avons initiées depuis deux semaines maintenant ont abouti, notamment la Charte de la Transition qui sera signée tout à l’heure, fassent l’objet de la plus grande attention, car il s’agit d’un consensus national, traduisant ainsi la volonté de tout le peuple burkinabè.

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Who wrote Zida’s speech?

Who wrote Zida’s speech?  I’m going for Valère Somé… or someone very familiar with Sankara’s speeches… just some signs .. either Zida is extraordinarily well-read, or he called back some of the old guard to beef up his speech… or he knows how to Google Search like nobody’s business…

First clue: “En effet, s’inscrivant dans la dialectique d’une histoire qui s’est répétée ” People still use that word?

Second clue: “Comme le disait La Rochefoucauld”…. Le Roche…qui…ça?

Third clue: “Je voudrais avant tout rendre grâce à Dieu, qui n’a pas permis que notre pays se déchire et sombre dans le chaos, comme certains oiseaux de mauvais augure le prédisaient” Sankara likes the birds of misery imagery. But I do not think he would have thanked God!

Fourth clue: “que l’égoïsme, l’arrogance, la rapacité et la méchanceté de certains de ces filles et fils égarés, avaient dangereusement et misérablement marqués de leur flétrissure.”  Not even sure what the sentence means!

Fifth clue: “Comme le disait Frantz Fanon..”  Hmmm… heard that name before!

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Excellent The Economist survey on trade in the Pacific and the TPP

Michael Froman, America’s trade representative, says the TPP is about ensuring high labour standards, exposing state-owned enterprises to level competition with private enterprises and including digital activity “to ensure a free and open internet”. When he held informal talks with TPP counterparts at a get-together in Myanmar in August, he asked them about RCEP and was not impressed by what he heard. Whereas the TPP was aiming to eliminate almost all tariffs, India was asking RCEP to keep the figure as low as 40%. China was somewhere in between, apparently waiting to see where everyone else ended up.

via Free-trade pacts: America’s big bet | The Economist.

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Chronogramme de la transition… #Burkina

16 novembre
Désignation du président de la transition au plus tard à minuit

17 novembre
Validation au Conseil constitutionnel du président de la transition (10h)
Processus de désignation des représentants des différentes composantes pour la composition du Conseil national de transition dont les listes seront déposées auprès du Président national de la transition, au plus tard le 21 novembre à 12h

19 novembre
Nomination du Premier ministre de la transition par le Président de la transition

20 novembre
Composition du gouvernement de transition par le Premier ministre (16h)
Lecture du décret du Président de la transition, portant composition du gouvernement de la transition (20h)

21 novembre
Décret du Premier ministre portant création de la Commission nationale de réconciliation et des réformes (10h)
Investiture et prestation de serment du Président de la transition désigné (11h)
Publication de la liste des membres du Conseil national de transition (16h)

22 novembre
Premier conseil des ministres du gouvernement de transition (9h)
Première séance plénière du Conseil national de transition (16h)

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enjailler, verbe

J. Stéphane Nikièma ‏@JeanNikiema 8m8 minutes ago
Ah oui je suis enjaillé de ton discours, Lt Col Yacouba Isaac Zida tu es un dur! #lwili

enjailler, verbe
Sens- Verbe utilisé par les jeunes, “enjailler” viendrait de l’anglais “enjoy” (apprécier) ou de de l’argot ivoirien avec comme définition “charmer” ou “s’amuser” [Argot]. Ex Ce soir, c’est la fin des concours, on va aller s’enjailler en boîte !

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New York Times worries that falls in commodity prices herald big slowdown in GDP growth

The drop in prices, however, has been good for the United States, which is growing faster than other industrialized economies. Lower oil prices in particular will provide a much needed stimulus to consumers, particularly lower-income Americans who spend a larger percentage of their incomes on fuel; analysts say cheaper fuel has helped raise retail sales in the United States.  But America’s economy could struggle in the coming year if Europe and Japan slip into another recession. About 25 percent of all American exports went to those two markets in the first nine months of the year.The economic recovery from the financial crisis was uneven and disappointing. Now, in many countries, it is stalling.

via Warning Signs From Commodity Prices – NYTimes.com.

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San Fermin – Summer kind of sickness… wonderfully quirky, lovely song

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Trade talks with Asia high on President Obama’s agenda

Talks with China over expanding the 1997 treaty on information technology broke down last year over the scope of the products covered by the agreement. But after intensive negotiations leading up to Mr. Obama’s visit, Mr. Froman said, the Americans and Chinese agreed Monday evening to eliminate more than 200 categories of tariffs.While the United States still exports many high-technology goods, China is the world’s dominant exporter overall of electronics and has much to gain from an elimination of tariffs.Asian neighbors like Taiwan, South Korea and Japan increasingly find themselves supplying China’s huge electronics industry, deepening their economic dependence on decisions made in Beijing.“With so many new products created since the I.T.A. was concluded two decades ago, expanding the agreement’s coverage is imperative,” said Myron Brilliant, the head of international affairs of the United States Chamber of Commerce. “With trade in tech goods surpassing $4 trillion annually, the commercial significance of these negotiations is obvious.”At a news briefing, Mr. Froman said negotiators had also made progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional trade pact that is a centerpiece of Mr. Obama’s strategic shift to Asia.

via U.S. and China Overcome Hurdles on Technology Pact – NYTimes.com.

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Critique of Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact

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Suntech bankruptcy… a lesson for would-be government subsidizers

Suntech Power, a Chinese manufacturer that became the world’s largest producer of solar panels by 2011 only to be battered by plummeting prices, announced on Wednesday evening that its main operating subsidiary had been pushed into bankruptcy by eight Chinese banks.Suntech was the Icarus of the solar panel industry, with production that soared year after year on heavy investment, as Western investors bought up its New York-traded shares and its international debt issues. Part of a massive Chinese government effort to dominate renewable energy industries, Suntech grew to 10,000 employees in its hometown of Wuxi and even set up a small factory in Arizona to do further assembly of panels there.But a 10-fold expansion of overall Chinese solar panel manufacturing capacity from 2008 to 2012 produced a three-quarters drop in solar panel prices, undermining the economics of the business. Rapid expansion of natural gas production in the United States and a curtailment of subsidies in the European Union also hurt solar panel prices, as did an American imposition last year of import tariffs totaling about 40 percent after an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation.

via Suntech Unit Declares Bankruptcy – NYTimes.com.

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Bear Stearns bailout context from Fed transcripts

Transcripts released by the Federal Reserve on Friday [Feb 22 2014] indicated that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee didn’t discuss a direct bailout of Bear Stearns just days before it provided the struggling investment bank with a $12.9 billion loan that forestalled its bankruptcy and allowed JPMorgan  to acquire it. Transcripts also revealed that Bear’s struggles caused members at the March 10, 2008, meeting to consider the impact were the central bank to decide to cut its lending to any individual primary dealer.The Fed effectively bailed out Bear Stearns through its March 13 loan, and a March 17 facility called Maiden Lane that allowed the central bank to purchase $30 billion in assets from the investment bank. Those two liquidity measures allowed for JPMorgan to buy Bear Steans and forestall the investment bank’s bankruptcy.Those same efforts weren’t taken just months later when Lehman Brothers, another investment bank, fell into a liquidity crisis in the summer and fall of 2008. On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy after the Federal Reserve refused to lend to the investment bank as it worked to sell assets, or find an equity investor to forestall its demise.

via Fed Didn’t Consider Bear Stearns Bailout Days Before Its Bailout – TheStreet.

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A nice substantive polemic by Koudraogo Ouédraogo on one of the transition documents in Burkina Faso….well worth reading

Il est dommage qu’il n’y ait pas eu de fuite de ce document avant son adoption pour mettre au burkinabè de réagir dessus, afin de guider les débats ! C’est ce qui se fait dans certaine démocraties avancées, afin de permettre à la société de contribuer utilement au débat ! Nul n’est omniscient ! L’adoption d’une charte comme celle-ci demandait que le peuple entier soit consulté de façon indirecte, surtout lorsque nul d’entre nous ne sait comment Zida en est arrivé à cette liste de citoyens qu’il considère nous représentent pour discuter de notre avenir ! Par exemple, G. Diendéré a été reçu au CES, sans que personne, même pas les journalistes aient demandé à quel titre il le fut ! Une première faille dans notre marche vers une démocratie véritable ! Apres lecture de la charte, elle m’a d’abord rappelé Blaise Compaoré et son fameux « Large rassemblement » -de mangeurs- !

via Vers une transition avec les larbins ? – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

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Trans Pacific Partnership agreement back in the news

The segment also included a report from Al Jazeera’s Melissa Chan, who noted that although the trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP is not officially on the President’s agenda, it’s likely to be a major talking point throughout his trip. The TPP a deal between the US and 11 Asian countries which addresses tariff issues, copyrights, labor standards, and environmental measures. Critics in the US worry, though, that it could give rise to the tyranny of multi-national corporations.China was intentionally excluded from the TPP, but the US insists it would welcome Beijing if it wanted to join. Chan says Obama’s trip isn’t likely to solve any big problems, but hopes to start the process of rebuilding US-Asia relations that many Asians feel Washington has neglected.Gresser believes the Senate will also be supportive of the TPP. “In general, there’s pretty good bi-partisan support for the President on this. If he brings home a deal that opens markets, preserves the global internet, raises labor standards, I think it will be well-received.”Stone Fish adds that the biggest challenge for the TPP is public awareness. He says not many people know what the TPP is and what it means for the average American. He says Beijing is also investing in its new Silk Road Agreement. “On Saturday, Beijing offered $40 billion to start a fund that would help build infrastructure between China and Southeast and Central Asia.”

via Obama begins 10-day Asia trip | Al Jazeera America.

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Facile interpretations of events in Burkina Faso

Going around a lot is that everybody respects constitutions now, in Africa.

The first lesson and positive element brought to light by the changes in Burkina Faso is the general recognition and respect including by presidents of the constitution.

via Africa’s Democratic Transitions Under Construction: Some Lessons from Burkina Faso.

But some thought suggests that is too facile.  The problem in Burkina Faso is/was that nobody respected the constitution.  President Compaoré’s legislative majority amended the constitution in 2012 to have a Senate.  Elections were held. Popular protests arose.  The Senate was never implemented.  Nobody seemed to care much that the constitution now was missing a major institution.  Then in October 2014 when President Compaoré sought to change the constitution again through his legislative majority, to change the term limits (in some sense a perfectly constitutional move), protesters unconstitutionally destroyed the National Assembly, and army officers unconstitutionally took power.  So where is the great respect for the constitution?

People are respecting the different interpretations they have of their constitutions, while agreeing to ignore their constitutions when nobody respects what the constitution says.  Constitutions of convenience are probably not the best foundation for durable democracy.

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What is going on in Burkina Faso after the popular uprising?

Three groups (army, opposition, and ex-majority CDP) are preparing documents for the transition to a return to democracy and constitutionalism.  They are very focused on the nature of the personality of the presidency. Surprisingly bad choice for opposition which agrees with the mantra “strong institutions not strong men.”  I would guess that more time is spent thinking about WHO  than about how to craft institutions.  The discussions among the groups are to take place this week.  There is no roadmap for how to go from current unconstitutional rule to the transitional rule.  All parties are appealing to good will.

Meanwhile, Colonel Zida and the army have issued decrees for a return to work in a pseudo-constitutional setting.  The problem is that state institutions have to continue to function (e.g. municipal government, schools, tax collection) and yet in a legal sense they are not capable of acting since the constitutional was suspended.  It is not clear what happened to the ministers, for example, since ex-President Compaoré officially dissolved his government.

So things are moving long in an orderly way.  Good so far.

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