I loved this piece when I was 20, I still have the 7″ by Les Disques du Crepuscule: “In re don Giovanni” by Michael Nyman

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Solid Africa political overview from Steven Feldstein

Africa often brings policy surprises. Two of the most significant political moments in Africa—the street demonstrations that toppled Compaoré in Burkina Faso, and the surprisingly free and fair elections in The Gambia that ended Jammeh’s rule—were wholly unanticipated. Smart and capable diplomats on the ground made all the difference in preventing either situation from barreling into a full-blown crisis. The right support and resources from Washington helped U.S. diplomats reinforce these unexpected democratic opportunities and facilitate peaceful transitions. U.S. efforts have made a crucial difference in Africa during both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations. They saved lives, prevented mass atrocities, brokered peaceful solutions, and helped create the conditions for more prosperous futures. The new administration should continue this engagement.

Source: Why the Trump Administration Should Not Overlook Africa – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Where Economics is going: Increasingly integrated into decision-making in a routine way, as in decisions about whether to go to jail while awaiting trial

We examine how machine learning can be used to improve and understand human decision-making. In particular, we focus on a decision that has important policy consequences. Millions of times each year, judges must decide where defendants will await trial—at home or in jail. By law, this decision hinges on the judge’s prediction of what the defendant would do if released. This is a promising machine learning application because it is a concrete prediction task for which there is a large volume of data available. Yet comparing the algorithm to the judge proves complicated. First, the data are themselves generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the single variable that the algorithm focuses on; for instance, judges may care about racial inequities or about specific crimes (such as violent crimes) rather than just overall crime risk. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: a policy simulation shows crime can be reduced by up to 24.8% with no change in jailing rates, or jail populations can be reduced by 42.0% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, we see reductions in all categories of crime, including violent ones. Importantly, such gains can be had while also significantly reducing the percentage of African-Americans and Hispanics in jail. We find similar results in a national dataset as well. In addition, by focusing the algorithm on predicting judges’ decisions, rather than defendant behavior, we gain some insight into decision-making: a key problem appears to be that judges to respond to ‘noise’ as if it were signal. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals.

Source: Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

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President Engh’s remarks on SCU budget shortfalls

An interesting thing happened on the way to implementing Sustaining Excellence. Our operating budget for FY17 inherited more challenges from the previous year than originally estimated. In FY16 we ended up with a $4.5 Million net operating loss — the first operating loss in over 20 years. If repeated, such a deficit would have a negative impact on the University’s financial rating. Think of it this way. When you manage your household finances, you thoughtfully plan a budget for the year by making careful estimates of your income and projected expenses. All goes well until something unexpected occurs. Maybe the transmission on your car falls out. Maybe the orthodontist announces that your child needs braces. Possibly your water heater explodes. You suddenly face an unforeseen bill that blows the budget, and you have to adjust your spending to cover the costs. In planning for our current year budget, FY 17, our original calculations of needs to operate the university was short $8.4 Million. We reworked this budget and balanced it by June 2016, with a reduced merit increase, a 5% reduction in operating expenses, and a small contingency. Believing all was well, in the Fall we discovered a reduced enrollment in certain graduate programs and an under-realization of gift funds held in various departments to support operations. Just like your household, we had to adjust. This meant an additional 1.25% reduction across all cabinet areas in operating expenses. This was not quite the perfect storm, but stormy enough. These cuts in operating funds have caused a number of our colleagues to question the university’s financial health. Some have even speculated that we face a financial crisis. Others wonder about the possibility of a further budget shortfall. For these reasons, the annual Budget Forum, one week from today, will be a particularly important opportunity to learn more and to ask questions. There you will hear a deeper explanation of the issues of cash flow, construction, pledged donations, and university debt capacity.

My few comments.  (1) I hate analogies of budgets of large complex organizations to households.  Such analogies are shrouded in an earnest language of “let me help you children understand” but the real intent is to obfuscate with a poor analogy.  The intertemporal budget constraint (i.e. over time) of a large, complex organization is usually quite different from that of a household.  (2) This sentence: “In planning for our current year budget, FY 17, our original calculations of needs to operate the university was short $8.4 Million.”  “Needs” seems to be referring to “revenue flows.”  That is, “Our projected revenue flows were $8.4m below projected expenses.”  Odd choice of language.  We “need” this money!  (3) A 6.25% cut in total budget (he isn’t clear) amounts to about $28m.  Pres. Engh attributes the shortfall to declining graduate enrollment, but let’s say graduate students pay $35,000 in tuition per year, then enrollment would have had to go down by 800 students (almost one third of total enrollments).  Is that what happened?  How did our leadership allow graduate enrollments to decline so precipitously?  Where is the urgent task force to restore graduate enrollments?

Source: State of the University Address, 2017 – Public Addresses – Selected Writings – Office of the President – Santa Clara University

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Why can’t I listen to Sigur Ros The Nothing Song for more than two hours? Why didn’t they play it for ten hours?

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Light television viewing if you stream Netflix

I enjoyed The OA immensely, even if at times the show is unsatisfying.  It is like Netflix had carefully analyzed my viewing profile and said, “Let’s make a series that mixes Lost, Arrival, Lars von Trier, I see dead people, Maureen McHugh, etc.” All my favorite themes.  This genre (let’s call it melancholy fiction about our mysterious universe MFMU) always has a problem with endings, and The OA wisely chooses to not have an ending, and instead simply has the series drive away with someone shouting “Take me…!”

Midway through I made the mistake of reading a bit about the two writers, and realized they had cast themselves in the series, and suddenly the acting seemed more like “look at me” and less professional.  I think writer-directors should stay away from casting themselves in the lead roles.

A little bit more editing would have been good, at times a little repetitious. And the show never explains why the OA repeatedly switches demeanor from dysfunctional (when interacting with people) to highly functional (in her “group” of five).

Leslie and I both enjoyed Mozart in the Jungle.  With Gael Garcia Bernal, it is an over-the-top classical music romp of a soap opera.  It really helped that I have started to learn piano and have learned to read music (at beginner level, naturally)… but I find my music appreciation has really changed.

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Kwei Quartey’s Murder at Cape Three Points

Quartey’s detective series, now in its third title, featuring Darko Dawson is pretty good.  I enjoyed Murder at Cape Three Points The mystery here is a double-murder that involves the nascent offshore oil industry.  Lots of nice description of Takoradi, Cape Three Points (I want to live there!), middle class Ghanaian life, and corruption issues.  Brisk pacing, and good writing in the first half of the mystery keep you going.

I do think Quartey could benefit from better editing.  The second half really gets bogged down.  Like many mysteries, this one fizzles out at the end, and is unconvincing in its resolution.

The novel is a good introduction to Ghanaian development issues, though.  Maybe I will assign to class!

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Georgetown University Library Budget Cut

Lauinger Library’s budget was cut by $1 million for fiscal year 2016, requiring the library to reduce its principal collections of books to avoid staff layoffs. In July 2015, the library took a 6-percent overall budget reduction as part of a broader university effort to reduce spending, according to University Librarian Artemis Kirk. In order to retain all library staff, the majority of the cuts were made from the library’s collections budget, which were cut by 17.5 percent. The reduced collection was announced to university faculty in an email sent from library administrators Feb. 9 obtained by The Hoya. The cut is part of a larger series of cuts to the university budget, according to the email sent to faculty. K. Matthew Dames, associate university librarian for scholarly resources, said the $1 million reduction is unlikely to be reversed in future years.

Source: Georgetown University: “Lauinger Library Reduces Collection After Budget Cuts” | LJ INFOdocket

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Stata gets a markdown package… will try this in coming weeks

Rigorous documentation of the analysis plan, procedure, and computer codes enhances the comprehensibility and transparency of data analysis. Documentation is particularly critical when the codes and data are meant to be publicly shared and examined by the scientific community to evaluate the analysis or adapt the results. The popular approach for documenting computer codes is known as literate programming, which requires preparing a trilingual script file that includes a programming language for running the data analysis, a human language for documentation, and a markup language for typesetting the document. In this article, I introduce markdoc, a software package for interactive literate programming and generating dynamic-analysis documents in Stata.

From E. F. Haghish of the Center for Medical Biometry and Medical Informatics, University of Freiburg.  Source: Stata Journal | Article

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Roundup Friday

Have been very busy teaching introductory econometrics and associated lab to my Econ 41-42 students. Fun, but a lot of work. So many little glitches in R-Markdown. Great, useful program, but bringing students up to speed, and being the one to introduce many of them to the proverbial “workaround mentality” is time-consuming.

Two very light fiction reads in past week: Rick Yancey’s The 5th Wave, and Oliver Pötzsch’s The Hangman’s Daughter.  I cannot recommend either unless you have no alternative.  They were right there on our library’s new fiction shelf, so very convenient (normally I like our university librarians’ fiction reading selections).  Thank heavens I decided to take action and ordered through inter-library loan Kwei Quartey’s third Ghanaian detective novel.  I started it two days ago, quite good.

FAVL received a large donation, $10,000!, so I am ecstatic about that.  Our programs in Burkina Faso and Ghana will really benefit from having these unrestricted funds.  FAVL Treasurer Deb Garvey and I also finally packed up in last couple weeks 8 boxes of donated books, very high quality, and sent them off to Burkina Faso and Ghana.

I skied my first black run (well, just part of it) a couple weeks ago.  Thanks Jeff Schroeder. Very proud of myself.  It is hard starting things like this at 54.  Learning to play the piano actually is almost harder than skiing.  Thanks Jim Nette.  The weather has been very strange in Bear Valley and I am not flexible enough in my schedule to take advantage of some of the “never seen anything like it in 20 years” powder days (the resort uses “epic” a lot), but the coming weeks look more stable.  See you on the slopes!

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Jebel Marra in Darfur, Sudan

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More than 100,000 visas revoked due to travel ban

Amateur foreign policy indeed.

Over 100,000 visas have been revoked as a result of President Trump’s ban on travel from seven predominantly Muslim countries, an attorney for the government revealed in Alexandria federal court Friday.The number came out during a hearing in a lawsuit filed by attorneys for two Yemeni brothers who arrived at Dulles International Airport last Saturday. They were coerced into giving up their legal resident visas, they argue, and quickly put on a return flight to Ethiopia.“The number 100,000 sucked the air out of my lungs,” said Simon Sandoval-Moshenberg of the Legal Aid Justice Center, who represents the brothers.The government attorney, Erez Reuveni from the Justice Department’s Office of Immigration Litigation, could not say how many people with visas were sent back to their home countries from Dulles in response to the travel ban. However, he did say that all people with green cards who came through the airport have been let into the United States.For people such as the brothers, Tareq and Ammar Aqel Mohammed Aziz, who tried to enter the country over the weekend with valid visas and were sent back, the government appears to be attempting a case-by-case reprieve. They and other plaintiffs in lawsuits around the country are being offered new visas and the opportunity to come to the United States in exchange for dropping their suits.

Source: Government reveals more than 100,000 visas revoked due to travel ban – The Washington Post

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Recent reading: Two good graphic novels and The Vegetarian by Han Kang

Elliot for Christmas got Kill My Mother by Jules Feiffer, an interesting noir homage graphic novel, set in the 1940s Hollywood and Pacific Theater.  If you are my age and a certain  income class you probably read a lot of Feiffer cartoons and comics during your childhood.

lbj

Another Christmas present was Patience, by Daniel Clowes, who apparently lives just up the road in Oakland.  A good read; science fiction, time travel, melancholia, wasted lives, and that one chance.

Han Kang’s The Vegetarian is a strange tale out of South Korea.  Not well-crafted enough to be high literature, at least not in the English translation, it is still an interesting novel.  It is short, so you lose little by giving it a try.  Has little to do with being a vegetarian, and everything to do with maintaining a coherent identity as a person over time, once the absurdity of our consciousness of consciousness starts to infect your brain.

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New Zealand Is ‘the Future,’ Peter Thiel Said

Answered my question from yesterday, which country is “greater” than the United States  and so worthy of emulation?  Thiel has presumably communicated his choice to Trump.

“I am happy to say categorically that I have found no other country that aligns more with my view of the future than New Zealand,” Mr. Thiel wrote in his application.

Neither one of them probably is much concerned about the possibility that one day they or their children, after moving to New Zealand, might fall in love with someone with Maori background, and then suddenly be treated as a second-class citizen.  Nor, I bet, are they thinking of NZ anti-discimination policies as a model for the U.S.  Oh well.

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Trump and Navarro want to make the U.S. more like China… Why do we want to be poorer?

“More manufacturing.” “Without manufacturing we cannot be a great nation.”  So think about it.  The more like China the United States becomes, the more our average per capita income will drop to $5,000 per person (China’s), instead of $45,000 (ours now).  Which would you prefer?  A country of mostly well-paid knowledge workers, or a country of mostly low-paid factory workers?  Would you rather spend your day at Pixar, or at Whirlpool?

Think about the following (purely rhetorical) question to ask of President Trump:

Which country of the world is your model for the U.S.?  Which country should we aspire to be?  Which country has a “better economy” than the U.S.?  Germany?  Britain?  China?  Singapore? Norway? Vietnam?

Once the question is answered, we can really start talking about whether his proposed economic policies are coherent.  Until then, his policies are basically just about redistributing to his base.  He will be playing a zero-sum game that results in inefficiency, exactly what basic international trade theory tells us.  Sure we can protect banana growers in Montana from those low-wage Central American growers.   Is that going to make us “great”?  At the root of much of his incoherent policy, is a failure to distinguish between how “first” doesn’t necessarily make you “great.”

By the way, if President Trump cannot answer the rhetorical question, of which country he thinks we should emulate (which one is “greater” than the U.S.), then doesn’t that mean we (the U.S.) are still and already great?  So what is the big fuss about?

Posted in Teaching international trade, Teaching macroeconomics, United States | 1 Comment

Basenji – Chroma

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Wasting time getting ready for class: Powerpoint tip

Someday you might use this:
I have two text boxes that I would like to appear repeatedly on a PowerPoint slide. For example I want box one to appear for five seconds, then box two, then box one again, box two, etc. This needs to appear on each slide in the presentation so I can’t set it up with each box on a separate slide and then repeat the show.
If the background is not a problem, here’s how I got it to work.
– Make two boxes (or objects) next to each other.
– Duplicate the box on the right and cover the box on the left with the duplicate. Make the duplicate  look like the background if necessary as this is just your cover for the box on the left.
– Group the cover box and the right box.
– Add an Emphasis animation: Blink, to the group.
– Under timing, set duration to 5 seconds, and set repeat  to: Until end of slide.
Now when you run the show, one will appear to go away while the other remains, alternately until you advance the slide. Copy and paste the objects to the next slide to repeat, or put the objects on your master. Replicating the background with the cover may present a problem, but should work on a flat color.
Nice.  For a text box duration = 15 seconds better.  Finding the emphasis animation timing options is not obvious, but eventually you will figure out which menu options to choose.
Posted in Burkina Faso | Comments Off on Wasting time getting ready for class: Powerpoint tip

Colson Whitehead’s “The Underground Railroad”

Whitehead’s novel is good.  The central device of the “real” underground railroad is imaginative and deftly deployed.  The horrors of slavery, the perversity of “benign” slavery, the tenuous freedoms of Indiana, and the interior life of the main character, Cora, are compelling.  Lots of powerful imagery and fine writing.  The subject matter, slavery, needs to be read about over and over again.  Whitehead does a tremendous job of an inherently impossible task: the awful pain of slavery has to be set in a novel where you want to keep reading, not as a voyeur, but as an empathetic and lucky survivor.  He succeeds.

That said, for me some parts of the novel did not work too well.  In particular, towards the end I found Cora’s regular “reflecting” back to earlier episodes in her life more like a novelist trying too deliberately to urge the reader to “Remember that great character I introduced earlier in the novel?  Sure you do, good old Ajarry, you know, the grandmother?”  For all of Cora’s reflecting back to her grandmother, she seemed not to remember that supposedly Ajarry’s cousins were possibly in “the City of Pennsylvania.”  Another part of the writing I did not like was the frequent use of clauses as sentences.  No verb.  Running into the woods.

But what do I know?  The reviews at NPR, The Guardian, LA Times, and NY Times are ecstatic.  Untempered praise.  Resonating with current political events.  Stand the test of time, maybe.

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Salient stories like these from the University of Oregon are worrisome to all faculty, whose job is “speech”

As a university professor, I know that much of my job involves engaging in speech.  I do that “live” in front of students, I do it on Youtube recordings, I do it on a blog, I do it in academic journal articles, and I do “speech” in email and hallway conversations.  All faculty know that occasionally they say or write things that could be misconstrued.  Oftentimes we are required to be spontaneous; we respond to audiences. When delivering impromptu speech, sometimes words come out in way that after reflection seems to not reflect our deliberate intent.  Academics, moreover, are the master practitioners of sarcasm, irony, devil’s advocacy, provocation, etc.  And academics disagree about many things, and are not always certain what is meant when something is stated to be a fact or by when someone says they are offended.

At the same time, faculty know that many of their colleagues, especially in earlier times, were, as Chuck D. once sang, “Straight up racist that sucker was.”  So institutions with histories of unacknowledged racism and sexism (think Georgetown’s sale of slaves, or my own institution’s (Santa Clara University) century-long refusal to admit women) and privilege have to cope now with a remedy of occasional sanction for certain kinds of speech.

I struggle every day with the balance of these considerations.  Long explorations like this essay in the Washington Post by Eugene Volokh can be very helpful, even if I do not agree with the entire argument he is making.

Last week, the University of Oregon made clear to its faculty: If you say things about race, sexual orientation, sex, religion and so on that enough people find offensive, you could get suspended (and, following the logic of the analysis) even fired. This can happen even to tenured faculty members; even more clearly, it can happen to anyone else. It’s not limited to personal insults. It’s not limited to deliberate racism or bigotry.

Source: At the University of Oregon, no more free speech for professors on subjects such as race, religion, sexual orientation – The Washington Post

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Ha Jin’s Waiting

At a colleague’s Christmas party I had met the Stanford University economic historian Avner Grief, and he chatted with me for a long time about the role of clans in China and how that kin culture led to different institutional outcomes compared with Europe, where the limited liability city and then corporation emerged.  So maybe because I had China on my mind, I was looking at my shelf of unread books and saw Ha Jin’s Waiting (first published in 1999).  Something about the blurbs had turned me off way back when.  But I started in on it, and quickly found myself engrossed in the novel, a classic “marriage plot” with a backdrop of mid 1960s revolutionary through 1980s transitional China.  The focus is personal, but there are frequent anthropological-style descriptive passages (of people and their work, mostly).  The China described in the novel certainly could be Europe, so in that sense there is nothing culturally “different” about it.  The novel is quite compelling early on, because Jin takes time away from the plot to communicate the “thinking” of the several main characters.  The protagonist, Lin, is a diffident partner in his two relationships.  His thinking is often confused, slow, and incomplete.  The reader, if like me, understands but starts to get frustrated.  Towards the end the inevitability of a particular kind of outcome gets hinted at, so the denouement reinforces the tone of diffidence.  The novel itself seems to shrink back against a wall… read me if you like, it murmurs.

A nice review by Francine Prose at The New York Times.

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