Michael Kevane

The hubris… no need to point it out   ;-).  But Smockey is a rapper, and Sams’K le’Jah a reggaeman, and Norbert Traoré a military dude, and Zida was Blaise’s buddy…. so somebody has to give some direction, no?  Of course, Loada, Diabré, Sankara, Kaboré, Kam and Diallo are perfectly capable of evaluating these modest suggestions.

1. New regime leaders should immediately release a preliminary listing of their and immediate family assets.  In the existing constitution the president was supposed to declare all assets to the constitutional court (which then held them secretly).  New regime leaders should be bound to make public their assets, as should all Presidential candidates in eventual elections.  (And the regime certainly should go to the constitutional court files and release publicly the declarations of assets that Compaoré was supposed to have made.)
2. Radical freedom of information of documents in the Presidential palace Kosyam.  Accredited journalists should be allowed to go into the Kosyam and photograph as many of the documents stored there as they like.  All documents should be kept under the control of the director of the national archives, and not the new regime.  Sure, some sensitive secrets will be released. But freedom of information and transparency should be a guiding principle of the new regime.
3. Democratic processes and transparency in national ministries.  During transition ministries should be directed by a troika of career bureaucrats below the level of SG in each ministry.  Maybe elected by staff?  One person from old guard and two who were opposition.  Not the subject of horse-trading among competing political leaders each wanting a base from which to campaign.  Political leaders should not be given ministerial portfolios!
4. Sunshine on the leaders.  All meetings should be public for limited number of accredited journalists.  And Le Balai Citoyen leaders in particular should have access to meetings.No back door meetings with French ambassadors, gold mining execs and Denis Sassou-Nguesso types.  The need for “secret” and “private” talks is overblown.
5. Public release of all documents relating to government purchases and granted tax holidays with value over $1m.  Mining companies should be under scrutiny.  Audit of cotton corporation SOFITX long rumored to be slush fund for CDP should be transparent.

An interview with Newton Ahmed Barry today on BBC French, even he does not know what is happening.

Interview from August when he was being harassed by regime.

How often in recent memory during a coup or popular uprising or interregnum do you get two factions of the army declaring that they are in charge, but not actually fighting?  Was that what happened in Madagascar?  Hard to think of many cases like this for Africa.

If looting continues and standoff continues, deals will have to be struck.  Then a new regime starts off with the same tainted stain as previous regimes.

Dans une interview accordée à RFI, Salif Diallo affirme que le rapport de force militaire serait en faveur du Lieutenant-Colonel Isaac Zida. En rappel, monsieur Zida collabore avec les manifestants et la société civile.

via Burkina24 – Dans une interview accordée à RFI, Salif….

She reminds people that Sankara’s revolution was a military coup d’etat.  This one should not become that one all over again.

Nous venons d’assister à la seule et véritable révolution digne de ce nom menée au Burkina Faso. Pour cela, l’Armée doit également savoir partir et ne doit pas chercher à troquer sa tenue contre une veste de démocrate.

via Chute du président Blaise Compaoré : des opposants saluent « le courage et la … – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

And not just because I am a director of Friends of African Village Libraries, which will be working this year to establish 20 village libraries in northern Burkina Faso in a project with Catholic Relief Services funded through a U.S.D.A. grant. But more broadly, what has happened in Burkina Faso is a massive popular uprising, what we would call in the economics and political science literature a tipping point, where all the old patterns of preference falsification (going along with the regime because everybody else is going along with the regime) suddenly crumble.  Now the messy part begins as people sort out their true preferences and have to craft new institutions of restraint.

What should U.S. policy be?  The United States has “invested” (in the VC parlance) billions of dollars in Burkina Faso. Why? Because policymakers hoped that a stable, democratic Burkina Faso would be an important bulwark against the spread of AQIM and Ebola (yes, long before Ebola there were national security worries about global disease vulnerability from an unstable Sahel) and more importantly because that was the right thing to do for the people of Burkina Faso, who have long been very friendly towards the United States (ask Ambassadors Tulinabo Mushingi and Jeanine Jackson).  So our partnership with the people of Burkina Faso needs to continue, now more than ever.

When Nimeiri was ousted by a very similar large-scale people’s uprising, Gen. Swar al Dahab led a palace coup that stole all the thunder from the uprising.  He did transition to power a year later, but by then all the old guard traditional elites reestablished themselves, and the result was the disaster that became Sudan.

Now there can be a good weekend!

• Opposition very organized, very disciplined, gets those 500,000 people out to Kosyam and basically sits down at the gates until Compaoré is forced to resign. Massive peaceful civil disobedience.  Shut the city down. Tahrir Square-like.  Roch, Zepherin and Salif and Benewende agree to go that route. Set up a big tent in front of Kosyam.
• Opposition disorganized, tries to get people out to Kosyam, but bad job, security forces use tear gas, get groups to start running away, provocateurs and frustrated youth start looting, security forces stand by and do nothing.
• Opposition takes over National Assembly building and central Ouagadougou, declares itself legitimate government.  Just bypass Kosyam.  Run central government.  Roch, Zeph, Salif and Benewende would have to agree.  Hmmm.
• Opposition says “We won!” and let’s Compaoré stay, trusting that he really will step down in December 2015.  Of course, there will be a dozen reasons why the election will have to be postponed.

What others seem likely?

So nobody in the army is going to side with the opposition, it seems.  No civil war, perhaps, but no alternance, either. Except for Luc Adolphe Traoré…

Le général Lougué explique ne pas comprendre pourquoi les manifestants scandent son nom, même s’il se sait populaire et connu de la population. Il assure être du côté de ses frères d’armes.Le général Lougué ne remet pas en cause l’autorité du chef de l’Etat. Lorsqu’il a été contacté par RFI, il parlait depuis l’état-major des armées et assurait juste avant la déclaration du chef d’état-major que le président Compaoré est le chef suprême des armées, mais qu’il allait se ranger à la décision de l’état-major. Il a expliqué qu’il y avait eu des réunions toute l’après-midi, et que l’important à ses yeux était que l’armée se range du côté de la population, et qu’elle avait pour vocation d’être toujours du côté de la population.

via Burkina Faso: qui est le général Kouamé Lougué ? – Afrique – RFI.

He calls on everyone to put the nation’s interest before theirs. Something he never did.  After 27 years, doesn’t putting the nation’s interest first mean ensuring a peaceful transition of power through democratic elections?  This whole crisis, and people killed, because he refused to do that.  Now he needs to be judged.

Good New York Times reporting.

As the crisis deepened, Gen. Honoré Nabéré Traoré, the chief of staff of Burkina Faso’s armed forces, said at a news conference Thursday night that a transitional authority would lead the country to elections within 12 months. He did not say who would form the interim government. He also announced that a curfew would be in effect from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m. nightly.A reporter’s request for a visa was denied by the Burkina Faso Consulate in New York on Thursday night, on the grounds that the country’s borders had been sealed.

via Government of Burkina Faso Collapses – NYTimes.com.

Pour dire un mot rapide sur la déclaration du Chef d’Etat-major général des armées, pour reprendre une réflexion de Ablassé Ouedraogo, elle est incomplète, sinon insensée. A quel titre a-t-il signé cette déclaration ? En tant qu’exécutant de la décision de Blaise Compaoré ? Ou en tant que nouveau chef de l’exécutif ? En sa qualité de Chef d’Etat-major général des armées, il n’est pas habilité à dissoudre quoi que ce soit. Et, pour l’instant, il ne s’est pas déclaré non plus nouveau Chef de l’Etat.

via Réflexions à chaud sur la Déclaration du Chef d’Etat-Major Général des Armées … – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

• Sams K’Jah who supposedly is camped out at Ronde Point Nations Unis or Place de la Nation.
• Arsene Bognessan Ye – He was brought back by Compaoré to manage the whole political transition after 2011… he botched it, in retrospect. Where are his loyalties now?
• Augustin Loada – At Univ. of Ouagadougou, the top political scientist for Burkina Faso.
• Sylvestre Ouedraogo – Also at Univ. of Ouagadougou, economist and civic activist.
• Magloire Somé- also at Univ. of Ouagadougou, historian and a leader of one of the university syndicates
• Alizeta Ouedraogo – Burkina Faso’s richest woman, daughter married to Francois Compaoré.  With great wealth comes great responsibility. To go on the record.
• Maitre Pacere Titinga – well-connected to the traditional elite of Mossi society, and influential before in the legal environment.  Pretty old now, but will have some interesting perspectives probably.
• Vincent Ouattara – at Univ. of Koudougou – a trenchant critic of Compaoré wrote the book about all the political killings in Burkina Faso 1980-2010.

And for ordinary people’s views I would go out to Saaba, out to Nongremasson, out to Pissy, and see what was happening there.

Of course, this is out of anybody’s hands now, because when the army guys decide they are going to sort something out the rest does not really matter, does it?

They came in and read their communique, and the Army Chief of Staff acted confused when reporters asked a simple question: Where is Blaise Compaoré? and they all walked out of the room.  Painful to watch.  At least take power with a little bit of panache.  Or did they Youtube the Thai military’s takeover speech and translate into French?  And Traoré is the same guy who put down the Bobo mutiny in 2011. So maybe as the conspiracy-theory de l’heure has it, he is talking on phone with Blaise about how to salvage the situation.