Michael Kevane

They came in and read their communique, and the Army Chief of Staff acted confused when reporters asked a simple question: Where is Blaise Compaoré? and they all walked out of the room.  Painful to watch.  At least take power with a little bit of panache.  Or did they Youtube the Thai military’s takeover speech and translate into French?  And Traoré is the same guy who put down the Bobo mutiny in 2011. So maybe as the conspiracy-theory de l’heure has it, he is talking on phone with Blaise about how to salvage the situation.

Blaise Compaoré is holed up maybe in Kosyam, the presidential palace, with presidential guard (very powerful) remaining loyal.  Compaoré announced he would remain as president until elections at end of 2015, and he would not try to change constitution (and so would be termed out and could not run).  But, Army Chief of Staff Honoré Nabéré Traoré had earlier issued communiqué saying *he* was in charge and would form a transition government for a return to constitutional order.  Meanwhile the opposition said they would not accept either arrangement and that President Compaoré had to be forced to resign immediately.

(Sources for all this the Twitterfeed #lwili and so of course impossible to verify here in San Jose, CA)

A few hours ago I flinched after one tweet exchange with the inimitable Jon Lee Anderson.  Fuck!  I’ve been reading him in The New Yorker for years, and he tweets about Burkina Faso, and I try to be all sassy like I know more than he does, and I get schooled.

Basically the brief exchange was about nuance when commenting on what is and has happened in Burkina Faso.  I bristle when I sense commentators putting things into sinners-saints and heros-villains.  I’ve always loved Bertold Brecht’s lines from Galileo: Andrea: Unhappy is the land that breeds no hero.
Galileo: No, Andrea: Unhappy is the land that needs a hero.

Heros with capital H are not the answer to anything.  As reporter Joe Penney pointed out (one of the few western journalists on the ground during today’s demonstrations) the real lower-case heroes are the hundreds of youth who defied the security forces and pushed through the police barricades and said “trop, c’est trop.”  But they have no names.  And they deserve more than a sinner-saint version of history.

So what am I referring to exactly? Well in Burkina Faso’s case it is the tendency to cast Thomas Sankara as an other-worldy combination of Mother Theresa and Che Guevara, a manly killing machine who would wipe out imperialism in the name of the lepers and then pick up his guitar and strum “Across the Universe” around a campfire while comrades did the cooking and women cleaned the guns.

Here’s the nuance in some bullet points:

• Sankara took power in a coup d’etat. By force. And he didn’t announce a transition to civilian rule. He intended to stay in power.  For a good long while.  Who did he admire? Jerry Rawlings.  Would he have followed his example? We will never know. Because he also admired Fidel Castro.
• Sankara’s fellow coup plotter in 1983 was Blaise Compaoré.  Sankara had been imprisoned by Jean-Baptiste Ouedraogo (an army doctor who had assumed the presidency in the military interregnum of 1983), and Blaise’s forces had freed him.  So if Blaise is the devil, then Sankara was a serious misjudge of character.
• Killing Sankara can never be justified, but Sankara’s forces themselves had killed Gabriel Somé Yoryam, the previous army chief of staff, in their 1983 coup.  Sankara did not offer to put himself on trial for that killing.
• In 1987, when Blaise loyalists killed Sankara, it was not something that happened out of the blue. Sankara himself knew that he was in a power struggle with Blaise and others.  Blaise and others wanted rectification and pragmatism, Sankara wanted to devote more attention to revolutionary internationalism.  The regime had lost almost all its legitimacy and was struggling to survive.  The “political class” of Burkina was against the young revolutionary military captains.  Why? Well, one reason was that when the teacher’s union went on strike, Sankara ordered them all to be fired!
• What forces in the country did Sankara characterize as evil owls? Traditional leaders like the Mogho Naba.  Who have all the opposition figures today asked to intercede and negotiate a transition? The Mogho Naba.  Whatever one thinks of the Mogho Naba and inherited rule (which personally I loathe) politically-speaking it was a major miscalculation on Sankara’s part.
• The major opposition leaders- Salif Diallo (formerly Blaise’s right hand man in politics), Roch Marc Christian Kaboré (formerly head of CDP and speaker of the National Assembly that was just looted), and Zepherin Diabré (formerly finance minister and Africa chief of AREVA, the French nuclear giant)… well…. they were also part of Sankara’s revolution.  Should they all be characterized as traitors and sinners?  None of them went out on the line in the past 15 years, until 2013.  Diabré, to his credit, started earlier, and presumably was pursuing a real-politique.
• Blaise asked for pardon and was given pardon by the political elite in 1999, the year after the killing of Norbert Zongo.  The political elite led enormous demonstrations against Pres. Compaoré.  They chose to compromise, rather than pursue a more “street” approach.  Right or wrong, that was the choice at the time.  Blaise and his circle then manipulated and consolidated their hold on power.  The opposition, in the inimitable words of Joseph Ki-Zerbo, basically went back to sleep. They finally woke up in 2013. (After clicking the snooze button in 2011.)
• At the local level, the CDP controls practically every municipality.  Local politics easily could have been more vibrant and contested.  Political leaders chose an accommodating path of patronage and participation.  The regime wasn’t all-powerful, it was all-coopting.  There is a big difference I think.
• Why was CDP all-coopting?  Because at the end of the day, the regime delivered.  Burkina had maybe 3% per capita GDP growth for 15 years.  Very rapid urbanization. Ouagadougou was booming.  New universities constructed.  Cell phone network throughout the country.  A new wealthy middle and upper-class emerged.  Political and media discourse became freer and freer.  A real transition seemed like a likelihood.  And then Blaise for reasons that remain very unclear, decided to ruin it all by insisting that he stay in power even after 27 years.

*That is Yoweri Museveni, and no Blaise Compaoré, in the photo!

Now is when it gets Borgia-like, right?  Everyone has known for years that the slow but steady growth of Burkina Faso for last 15 years could vanish in a puff of smoke and a lot of broken windows, in three days of rioting.  I hope so much that Burkina doesn’t go down the Mali/Guinea/Cote d’Ivoire/Liberia/Sierra Leone/Guinea-Bissau/Togo route.  Hmm… what are the odds?  Well, Burkina Faso has reasonably good “traditional” institutions, has a well-deserved reputation for ethnic and religious tolerance, has an optimistic youth population, and has a lot of friendly donor countries.  So maybe things will come out OK.

PS.  Just for the record.  It has been a good rainfall year.  October-Nov is not a “hot” month in Ouagadougou.  Rain and heat did not cause this popular uprising.  Clear?

For the future, it would be good to know what exactly were the messages being sent by Susan Rice and Tulinabo Mushingi, because surely this was not the outcome that U.S. policy should have been working for.  As a U.S. citizen, I sure hope my foreign policy representatives were telling Blaise in no uncertain terms that if a popular uprising took to the streets and ousted him, he should not count on any support from the U.S. if he tried to claw his way back in the game.

And now, they should be telling him he should leave.  The major opposition leaders are all former regime members, and there is no reason to think their policies would be mis-aligned with U.S. policy of promoting development and containing AQIM.

Ambassador Mushingi should come right out and say, “Blaise Compaoré has proven himself incapable as President, and he should immediately resign, and finally be held accountable for the numerous crimes committed under his presidency, especially the killing of Norbert Zongo.”

President Blaise Compaoré looks like he is about to be ousted, as a popular uprising today has led the regime to collapse.  Pretty much his own fault.  He had numerous opportunities over 2014 to engineer a graceful transition of power in 2015.  He decided not to. Just a month ago, Burkinabè were hopeful that talks between opposition and the President, face-to-face, explicitly about the transition, might lead to a compromise.  We may never know what and whom from Compaoré’s inner circle prevented that, and now it is too late.

Last week his main counselor, Assimi Kouanda, head of the CDP, the political party that controls the National Assembly, announced that the CDP would move very quickly to modify the constitution and permit Compaoré  to stand for yet another term.  They then announced that they had allied with a smaller party, ADF-RDA, and had a 3/4 majority in the National Assembly, and so they did not even have to have a referendum, they could just amend the constitution to permit yet another term (or two!) for Compaoré.  And then they set a date, today Thursday.  And then they thumbed their noses at the opposition, and apparently rounded up the CDP deputees of the National Assembly and put them in a luxury hotel across the street from the Assembly.  Talk about making people even madder. The whole thing took on the clear appearance of unconstitutional and undemocratic “forcing” rather than what the CDP kept saying.  So in the morning the young crowd swelled, and the security forces decided they did not want to have a massacre just to let Compaoré stay in the palace, and the whole thing broke down.  Arrogance and miscalculation led to the downfall.

Gilbert Noel Ouedraogo, leader of ADF-RDA, now looks like he also made a major miscalculation in siding with Compaoré.

U.S. diplomats were pretty clear today in disapproval.  Of course, the effects depend on how the message was delivered in person, and the hints of consequences to follow if the message were ignored (as seems likely, at this point).  The weird thing about the whole effort by Compaoré is that not even people in Burkina Faso can really understand why he is doing this.  To almost everyone, it seems like the reasonable thing to do would be to say he was not going to run again, let someone in the CDP run (and win), and then move on to the nice life of a senior international peacemaker  for French West Africa.  After a few years he would be a hero to 80% of Burkinabè (the rest will never forget the crimes de sang).  If Compaoré were a megalomaniac, or had a Putin-like vision of himself leading a “mother Burkina,” then sure one can understand why he will not let go.  But most people’s sense of him is that is is fairly disinterested in being  a leader.  Indeed, his public style the past ten years has been to be outside the fray and pretend he is neutral arbiter.  So either he is a true master of image, or there is someone else (Chantal? Diendere? Koanda?) really pushing this.

Later on Tuesday, the U.S. issued a statement saying, “The United States emphasizes that constitutionally mandated term limits provide an important mechanism to hold heads of state accountable, ensure peaceful and democratic transfers of power, and give new generations the opportunity to compete for political office and elect new leaders.”

…

The political crisis spilled out onto the streets on Tuesday in a campaign of civil disobedience called by opposition parties who want to prevent the referendum being held.  Hours later, the U.S. State Department said it was “concerned by the spirit and intent behind” the proposed changes that would allow Compaore, who has been in power for 27 years, to run for election in 2015, when he is meant to stand down.  Burkina Faso is a key U.S. ally in West Africa in the fight against al Qaeda-linked fighters operating in the Sahel-Sahara band. It also frequently mediates in regional conflicts.  France, which has Special Forces troops based in the country, said on Tuesday it expected Compaore to adhere to the laws drawn up by peers at the African Union and not push through the constitutional amendments.

via Thousands protest in Burkina for second day, U.S. joins outcry | Reuters.

The right data:

Since 1990, 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa have had leaders try to rewrite their constitutions to do away with term limits. Seven 64 percent of these leaders succeeded Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Namibia, Togo, and Uganda. Three failed Malawi, Nigeria, and Zambia, in the face of erstwhile opposition from legislatures. In one instance – Niger in 2010 – attempts by President Mamadou Tandja to extend term limits resulted in a coup. In previous work, I found that the dominance of the president’s party in the legislature was a good indicator of the likelihood of term limit extension.

The right conclusion:

We should care because both theory and empirical evidence suggest that leadership turnover is good for institutional development, democratic consolidation, and political stability.

via As thousands protest against term limit extension in Burkina Faso, will other African presidents take note? – The Washington Post.

President Blaise Compaoré, and his political party the CDP (led by Assimi Koanda) announced this week they would seek to amend the Constitution in order to permit President Compaoré to run for another term. Opposition announced big demonstration October 28.  Spontaneous demonstrations singling out “kingmaker” ADF-RDA leader Gilbert Noel Ouedraogo whose party controls enough seats in National Assembly to permit direct amendment of constitution (Blaise will have 3/4 of votes,  as provided for in constitution).  GNO came out and said they would vote with CDP.

Today, October 26, government announces all schools and universities closed for the week.

The brief history: As Army captains, Blaise and his friend Thomas Sankara took power in 1983.  In 1987 Sankara was killed (by Blaise loyalists).  Blaise assumed the presidency.  In 1991 he was elected to a 7 year term- not free and fair elections.  In 1998 he was elected to another term.  After the election, journalist Norbert Zongo is killed, massive demonstrations, Compaoré agrees to amend constitution to have term limits and term of five years, courts rule limits not retroactive.  Blaise elected again in 2005.  Blaise elected again in 2010.  In both cases, opposition weak and divided.  2011 army mutinies and civil disturbances.  Old guard in CDP quits, to oppose amending constitution.

Rémi Carayol writes that his sources indicate Blaise Compaoré will try on October 30 to have the National Assembly pass by 3/4 majority an amendment to the constitution permitted a second re-election (that is, a third term).  Oddly, Jeune Afrique/Carayol does not mention that the constitution explicitly says that the 3/4 is for Parliament, which is the National Assembly plus Senate combined. but there is no Senate!

Selon nos informations, ce projet de loi sera soumis aux débats le 30 octobre dans l’hémicycle. Il stipule que le nombre de mandats présidentiels est toujours limité une ligne rouge pour l’ADF, mais que désormais, le président est rééligible deux fois, et non plus une seule fois comme le précise la Constitution actuelle. “Tout le monde est content, souffle un proche du président. Compaoré peut se représenter, et l’ADF peut sortir la tête haute, puisque la limitation du nombre de mandats est maintenue”. Le parti de Gilbert Noël Ouedraogo a aussi obtenu que l’article 37 de la Constitution ne soit à l’avenir plus modifiable. Un verrou supplémentaire… après en avoir fait sauter un.

via Décryptage | Burkina Faso : le référendum, la seconde option de Blaise Compaoré | Jeuneafrique.com.