Michael Kevane

*That is Yoweri Museveni, and no Blaise Compaoré, in the photo!

Now is when it gets Borgia-like, right?  Everyone has known for years that the slow but steady growth of Burkina Faso for last 15 years could vanish in a puff of smoke and a lot of broken windows, in three days of rioting.  I hope so much that Burkina doesn’t go down the Mali/Guinea/Cote d’Ivoire/Liberia/Sierra Leone/Guinea-Bissau/Togo route.  Hmm… what are the odds?  Well, Burkina Faso has reasonably good “traditional” institutions, has a well-deserved reputation for ethnic and religious tolerance, has an optimistic youth population, and has a lot of friendly donor countries.  So maybe things will come out OK.

PS.  Just for the record.  It has been a good rainfall year.  October-Nov is not a “hot” month in Ouagadougou.  Rain and heat did not cause this popular uprising.  Clear?

For the future, it would be good to know what exactly were the messages being sent by Susan Rice and Tulinabo Mushingi, because surely this was not the outcome that U.S. policy should have been working for.  As a U.S. citizen, I sure hope my foreign policy representatives were telling Blaise in no uncertain terms that if a popular uprising took to the streets and ousted him, he should not count on any support from the U.S. if he tried to claw his way back in the game.

And now, they should be telling him he should leave.  The major opposition leaders are all former regime members, and there is no reason to think their policies would be mis-aligned with U.S. policy of promoting development and containing AQIM.

Ambassador Mushingi should come right out and say, “Blaise Compaoré has proven himself incapable as President, and he should immediately resign, and finally be held accountable for the numerous crimes committed under his presidency, especially the killing of Norbert Zongo.”

President Blaise Compaoré looks like he is about to be ousted, as a popular uprising today has led the regime to collapse.  Pretty much his own fault.  He had numerous opportunities over 2014 to engineer a graceful transition of power in 2015.  He decided not to. Just a month ago, Burkinabè were hopeful that talks between opposition and the President, face-to-face, explicitly about the transition, might lead to a compromise.  We may never know what and whom from Compaoré’s inner circle prevented that, and now it is too late.

Last week his main counselor, Assimi Kouanda, head of the CDP, the political party that controls the National Assembly, announced that the CDP would move very quickly to modify the constitution and permit Compaoré  to stand for yet another term.  They then announced that they had allied with a smaller party, ADF-RDA, and had a 3/4 majority in the National Assembly, and so they did not even have to have a referendum, they could just amend the constitution to permit yet another term (or two!) for Compaoré.  And then they set a date, today Thursday.  And then they thumbed their noses at the opposition, and apparently rounded up the CDP deputees of the National Assembly and put them in a luxury hotel across the street from the Assembly.  Talk about making people even madder. The whole thing took on the clear appearance of unconstitutional and undemocratic “forcing” rather than what the CDP kept saying.  So in the morning the young crowd swelled, and the security forces decided they did not want to have a massacre just to let Compaoré stay in the palace, and the whole thing broke down.  Arrogance and miscalculation led to the downfall.

Gilbert Noel Ouedraogo, leader of ADF-RDA, now looks like he also made a major miscalculation in siding with Compaoré.

U.S. diplomats were pretty clear today in disapproval.  Of course, the effects depend on how the message was delivered in person, and the hints of consequences to follow if the message were ignored (as seems likely, at this point).  The weird thing about the whole effort by Compaoré is that not even people in Burkina Faso can really understand why he is doing this.  To almost everyone, it seems like the reasonable thing to do would be to say he was not going to run again, let someone in the CDP run (and win), and then move on to the nice life of a senior international peacemaker  for French West Africa.  After a few years he would be a hero to 80% of Burkinabè (the rest will never forget the crimes de sang).  If Compaoré were a megalomaniac, or had a Putin-like vision of himself leading a “mother Burkina,” then sure one can understand why he will not let go.  But most people’s sense of him is that is is fairly disinterested in being  a leader.  Indeed, his public style the past ten years has been to be outside the fray and pretend he is neutral arbiter.  So either he is a true master of image, or there is someone else (Chantal? Diendere? Koanda?) really pushing this.

Later on Tuesday, the U.S. issued a statement saying, “The United States emphasizes that constitutionally mandated term limits provide an important mechanism to hold heads of state accountable, ensure peaceful and democratic transfers of power, and give new generations the opportunity to compete for political office and elect new leaders.”

…

The political crisis spilled out onto the streets on Tuesday in a campaign of civil disobedience called by opposition parties who want to prevent the referendum being held.  Hours later, the U.S. State Department said it was “concerned by the spirit and intent behind” the proposed changes that would allow Compaore, who has been in power for 27 years, to run for election in 2015, when he is meant to stand down.  Burkina Faso is a key U.S. ally in West Africa in the fight against al Qaeda-linked fighters operating in the Sahel-Sahara band. It also frequently mediates in regional conflicts.  France, which has Special Forces troops based in the country, said on Tuesday it expected Compaore to adhere to the laws drawn up by peers at the African Union and not push through the constitutional amendments.

via Thousands protest in Burkina for second day, U.S. joins outcry | Reuters.

The right data:

Since 1990, 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa have had leaders try to rewrite their constitutions to do away with term limits. Seven 64 percent of these leaders succeeded Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Namibia, Togo, and Uganda. Three failed Malawi, Nigeria, and Zambia, in the face of erstwhile opposition from legislatures. In one instance – Niger in 2010 – attempts by President Mamadou Tandja to extend term limits resulted in a coup. In previous work, I found that the dominance of the president’s party in the legislature was a good indicator of the likelihood of term limit extension.

The right conclusion:

We should care because both theory and empirical evidence suggest that leadership turnover is good for institutional development, democratic consolidation, and political stability.

via As thousands protest against term limit extension in Burkina Faso, will other African presidents take note? – The Washington Post.

President Blaise Compaoré, and his political party the CDP (led by Assimi Koanda) announced this week they would seek to amend the Constitution in order to permit President Compaoré to run for another term. Opposition announced big demonstration October 28.  Spontaneous demonstrations singling out “kingmaker” ADF-RDA leader Gilbert Noel Ouedraogo whose party controls enough seats in National Assembly to permit direct amendment of constitution (Blaise will have 3/4 of votes,  as provided for in constitution).  GNO came out and said they would vote with CDP.

Today, October 26, government announces all schools and universities closed for the week.

The brief history: As Army captains, Blaise and his friend Thomas Sankara took power in 1983.  In 1987 Sankara was killed (by Blaise loyalists).  Blaise assumed the presidency.  In 1991 he was elected to a 7 year term- not free and fair elections.  In 1998 he was elected to another term.  After the election, journalist Norbert Zongo is killed, massive demonstrations, Compaoré agrees to amend constitution to have term limits and term of five years, courts rule limits not retroactive.  Blaise elected again in 2005.  Blaise elected again in 2010.  In both cases, opposition weak and divided.  2011 army mutinies and civil disturbances.  Old guard in CDP quits, to oppose amending constitution.

Rémi Carayol writes that his sources indicate Blaise Compaoré will try on October 30 to have the National Assembly pass by 3/4 majority an amendment to the constitution permitted a second re-election (that is, a third term).  Oddly, Jeune Afrique/Carayol does not mention that the constitution explicitly says that the 3/4 is for Parliament, which is the National Assembly plus Senate combined. but there is no Senate!

Selon nos informations, ce projet de loi sera soumis aux débats le 30 octobre dans l’hémicycle. Il stipule que le nombre de mandats présidentiels est toujours limité une ligne rouge pour l’ADF, mais que désormais, le président est rééligible deux fois, et non plus une seule fois comme le précise la Constitution actuelle. “Tout le monde est content, souffle un proche du président. Compaoré peut se représenter, et l’ADF peut sortir la tête haute, puisque la limitation du nombre de mandats est maintenue”. Le parti de Gilbert Noël Ouedraogo a aussi obtenu que l’article 37 de la Constitution ne soit à l’avenir plus modifiable. Un verrou supplémentaire… après en avoir fait sauter un.

via Décryptage | Burkina Faso : le référendum, la seconde option de Blaise Compaoré | Jeuneafrique.com.

Correction- they voted to put consideration of the question on the agenda, apparently. Still not clear because no news stories have emerged of what exactly was decided today.

Apparently after not even a full day of consideration!  No hearings about legality (under present constitution there is supposed to be a Senate; under present constitutions not supposed to amend constitution in way that undermines republican character of state… gosh this reminds one of Rome under Caesar!) No hearings about death of constitutional court judge Salifou Nebie. No hearings about intimidation of journalists.  Just a shameful rubber stamp, rationalized inside their heads, I am sure, by a thinking that “These other guys, Zepherin, Roch, Salif… they’re the same as us… so it is all a big game… so why should we let them win when we can win…”  The problem is clear in history of other West African states, and is even expressed pithily in French: “Après moi, le déluge.”

A l’Assemblée nationale, l’ordre du jour de la session prenant en compte le projet de loi modifiant la constitution a été voté hier jeudi. Résultats : 99 voix pour CDP, ADF/RDA, CFR, UNDD et 28 contre ADJ , UPC.

via leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso – L’information en temps réel du Burkina, Médias, journaux, infos, direct, les dernières nouvelles, politiques..

One of the most well-respected journalists in Burkina Faso.  He does not mince his words. Completely opposed to Blaise Compaoré’s attempts to revise the constitution to permit himself to run for another presidential term.

Il y a une constitution qui est là avec ses insuffisances certes, mais elle est là comme loi fondamentale. Cette constitution est suffisamment précise quant à la durée du mandat présidentiel, quant au contexte d’organisation d’un référendum. Je suis donc étonné que l’intéressé ou d’autres personnes se posent la question. Ce qui est par contre, peu claire, c’est qu’est-ce que les Burkinabè veulent ? La constitution prévoit aussi que lorsqu’on vous fait la force, il faut vous défendre. Si les gens s’asseyent sur leurs honorables postérieurs et en font des débats de maquis, c’est leur problème. A partir du moment où c’est un acte illégal, il faut que les gens réagissent par rapport à cette illégalité. Je ne vais pas rentrer dans de grandes théorisations, mais il faut que les Burkinabè apprennent à être, un tant soit peu, courageux. Que nous apprenions à nous départir des non-dits, à nous assumer par rapport au regard de nos enfants, par rapport aux générations futures. La vérité, s’il y a une vérité, est toute simple. Le président Blaise Compaoré qui dirige le Burkina depuis 27 ans, n’est pas arrivé par les urnes au pouvoir.

via BURKINA FASO | Cheriff Sy : « Ce n’est pas un bulletin de vote qui a amené le président Blaise Compaoré au pouvoir.