Terry Gross fail, Chimamanda Adichie disppoints

I enjoyed (well, if that is the word) reading Purple Hibiscus and Half of a Yellow Sun, and would heartily recommend them.  But it seems that Adichie has decided to pursue some fast money, with an obvious novel and lecture circuit about “being black”… it’s the whole “start a conversation” thing all over again.  Platitude after platitude… Adichie in the interview with Gross at one point even says, “what they should walk away from the table with…” as if blacks and whites in the U.S. were like negotiators at a nuclear arms treaty… I have a very healthy loathing for identity novels…. I think over-obsession with identity issues is fundamentally misplaced.  It’s like going to a doctor and talking for hours about difficulty sleeping and never mentioning oh by the way a lump in my breast. And because so many people are cognitively biased this way, a lot of identity-vultures fly around saying, “give me your money and I’ll give you an identity chucklenod”  (yes I coined that, the chucklenod is when you read something and nod, emit a little chuckle, and say “yup” and then the author repeats it over and over… see watermelon below).

Terry Gross, normally a sensitive and intelligent interviewer, plays the role of parochial and know-nothing white American to a tee… her lowest moment when she spend 5 interminable minutes with Adichie about her hair, wondering about why an African woman might want straight hair!  Could you imagine her having that conversation with Wole Soyinka? Well, maybe I can.

When the novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie was growing up in Nigeria she was not used to being identified by the color of her skin. That changed when she arrived in the United States for college. As a black African in America, Adichie was suddenly confronted with what it meant to be a person of color in the United States. Race as an idea became something that she had to navigate and learn.

The learning process took some time and was episodic. Adichie recalls, for example, an undergraduate class in which the subject of watermelon came up. A student had said something about watermelon to an African-American classmate, who was offended by the comment.

\”I remember sitting there thinking, \’But what\’s so bad about watermelons? Because I quite like watermelons,\’ \” Adichie tells Fresh Air\’s Terry Gross.

via ‘Americanah’ Author Explains ‘Learning’ To Be Black In The U.S. : NPR.

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Abortion debate comes to Jesuit universities

We faculty and staff at Santa Clara University received a letter last week, in the mail.  The only real “letter” I can think of from the president of the university.  In the letter, President Engh informs us that he has decided that the “Catholic” identity of the university means the university will no longer have health insurance for employees cover elective abortions (I put in quotes because for Catholics in the church hierarchy, i.e. priests and bishops, it is clear what Catholic identity is because the Pope tells them, while for the rest of us that identity seems to ebb and flow).

The president in the letter calls for a “conversation” to “broaden hearts” and announces several fora for this conversation.  To which a huge chunk of faculty have replied, “huh?”  You announce a decision and then want to “listen”?  Albert Hirschman long about wrote about exit, voice and loyalty.  When you scoff at voice, you better not expect loyalty, and should anticipate exit.  Not a great day for our president.

As a development economist, of course I cannot help but point out the giant elephant in the moral reasoning room (which is why their “Catholic” identity differs from what I think a Catholic identity should be…)  is the simple FACT of the world, which is that concern for the well-being of the very young… means you should be doing a lot more overseas in South Asia and Africa, and worrying a lot less about abortion in Silicon Valley.  I would have preferred a letter about that, but somehow don’t see our president ever making that move.  That would indeed be too “risky” to use the word the president thinks characterizes some small deviation from Vatican official stance on abortion.

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Marginal Revolution gives basic scenario of the default

Interest rates skyrocket and there are numerous collateral calls from clearinghouses and thus a squeeze on Treasuries. Everyone is scrambling after Treasuries and suddenly T-Bill liquidity is quite scarce. (Here is one FT post on collateral crunch.) The next morning retail runs on money market funds commence and most redemptions cannot be made (another FT post here). Those funds are shuttered and new commercial paper issues are put on hold.

By mid-morning of the 17th the payments system has shut down entirely. The Fed tries everything possible, but even with a flood of monetary liquidity, T-Bills are “not what they used to be” and no flow of reserves can make up for this. The monetary authority cannot become the fiscal authority in the span of an hour or a day, especially when it doesn’t have a fully credible fiscal authority behind it. The payments system remains gridlocked. Elsewhere, the Italian 10-year rate shoots over eleven percent, so the ECB has to invoke Outright Monetary Transactions, but the Germans get nervous and don’t go whole hog with this program. A lot of European credit markets shut down too.

Lots of countries have defaulted on debt.  Sometimes the debt owners take a haircut, more often they just have to wait.  In the United States there doesn’t appear to be danger of haircut, just of delays.  But the delay in payments could be very costly.  Much of the financial system relies on highly leveraged transactions being cleared every day.  A medium sized stone tossed carelessly in the pond might generate huge ripples.

via Marginal Revolution — Small steps toward a much better world..

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Possibly the right effect of flipped classroom

As I see my kids transition to middle school and high school, and then deal with young people at my fairly elite liberal arts university, it is clear that absenteeism and “not doing homework” is a huge factor at the bottom of the distribution.  For 95% of kids, school can and should be easy, as long as you devote 30 minutes a day of your brain to each topic.  I mean, a lot of kids just need reminders every few months that 2/4 = .5, or that every paragraph should have a first sentence that leads into a new idea…

Clintondale’s experience indicates that the biggest effect of flipping classrooms is on the students at the bottom. “It’s tough to fail a flipped class, because you’re doing the stuff in here,” said Rob Dameron, the head of the English department. “I used to have about a 30 percent failure rate in English – these kids come in a lot at third-grade, fourth-grade reading levels. Now, out of 130 kids, I have three who are failing — mostly due to attendance problems.”

via Turning Education Upside Down – NYTimes.com.

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Worsening Debt Crisis Threatens Puerto Rico

All this happened because Luis Fortuno went to Maristas and not San Ignacio… tu sabes? Seriously though, this is so tragic… an island with so many inspirational figures (I still get chills when I think of looking over the ocean after Roberto Clemente’s plane went down), such great resources, incredibly developed and commercial artistic culture (literature, graphic design, painting, architecture… salsa music is played everywhere in Africa… )… is mired in social incoherence… nacion de mendigos indeed… donde esta Tati!

While Detroit has preoccupied Americans with its record-breaking municipal bankruptcy, another public finance crisis on a potentially greater scale has been developing off most Americans’ radar screens, in Puerto Rico.Puerto Rico has been effectively shut out of the bond market and is now financing its operations with bank credit and other short-term measures that are unsustainable in the long run. The biggest concern is that the territory, which has bonds that are widely held by mutual funds, will need some sort of federal lifeline, an action for which there is no precedent.

via Worsening Debt Crisis Threatens Puerto Rico – NYTimes.com.

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Una Familia Habanera by Eloisa Lezama Lima …

9780897298629Lezama Lima is someone who we discussed in hushed tones when I was in high school and college and la literature latinoamericana was VERY IMPORTANT.  I always thought most of the stuff I read was great fun. I loved Carpentier, Cortazar, Borges, Garcia Marquez, Rulfo etc.  I devoured it because it was really interesting.  But as time went on… Recently I picked up Lezama Lima’s Paradiso, and tried to read it… ugh… to many words… endless description…  for it to rain take three pages…   So I thought to myself, “Why not read about Lezama Lima instead, there has to be lots of juicy stuff…”  So I checked out his sister’s short reflection of life in La Habana …. but honestly, it is pretty boring, mostly chatty vignettes of family life and catty literary gossip.  Of interest to Lezama specialists or historians of the period.  So disappointed again.  Of course the black and white fotos add an allure of “when things were different” but… not enough.

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Standing on a box, shouting that are willing to die… Sudan 2013

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Just to make sure everyone knows we are dealing with inefficient bargaining: they will be paid but not do work while the game of chicken goes on

The Republicans could have argued that government workers don’t do anything anyway so the shutdown is not even really costly, but they’ve apparently decided not to go that route.  Of course this eliminates a major constituency for a deal; now 90% of workers will want the shutdown to continue!

As the fifth day of the federal government shutdown began, members of the House came together in a moment of rare bipartisanship to pass a bill, by a vote of 407 to 0, approving back pay for furloughed government workers.  President Obama has expressed his support for the measure.  Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid supports the measure, but said Saturday that if furloughed workers are guaranteed back pay, there’s no reason to keep them out of work.

via House votes to approve back pay for furloughed workers.

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Reading affects empathy? Or positive publication bias?

OK I can’t write something that isn’t honest+sour grapes.  So there.  Nobody, certainly not Science, will publish replications of this study.  If authors had found no effects, or reverse effects, no one would have published.  Important to remember that.  My current research project in Burkina Faso looks at effects of reading fiction (popular, because barely literate sixth-grade readers cannot read French translation of Dostoevsky, or Chekhov, FYI/IMHO/WTF/LOL, and because Ahmadou Kourouma… well… he’s pretty hard, and also expensive…) on youth 15-24, having access to books over a long period of time (6 months, and not reading for 3 minutes) and on “real” behavior (in person experimental games) rather than just questionnaires.  I do not know the outcomes of my research yet, but I’d be quite surprised if there is a very large effect, and that makes me really skeptical of these short-term low stakes findings… Great for this “field” though!

“It’s a really important result,” said Nicholas Humphrey, an evolutionary psychologist who has written extensively about human intelligence, and who was not involved in the research. “That they would have subjects read for three to five minutes and that they would get these results is astonishing.”

Dr. Humphrey, an emeritus professor at Darwin College, Cambridge, said, “I would have thought reading in general” would make people more empathetic and understanding. “But to separate off literary fiction, and to demonstrate that it has different effects from the other forms of reading is remarkable. I think it’s going to generate a lot more research and I hope it’s going to generate some discussion in education.”

To find a broader pool of research subjects than the college students who typically participate, the researchers used Amazon.com’s Mechanical Turk service, where people sign up to earn money for completing small jobs. Between 78 and 456 people, ranging in age from 18 to 75, were recruited for each experiment and paid $2 or $3 each.

via I Know How You’re Feeling, I Read Chekhov – NYTimes.com.

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Question: Why are no moderate Republicans switching parties?

Maybe there are some and I don’t know about it.  I confess that out here in solidly Democratic California partisan politics not too high on list of things to follow especially when research in on West Africa.  But I do distinctly remember when Jim Jeffords famously switched, and this shutdown debacle seems like the ideal time for Democratic oriented plutocrats to offer to set up think-tanks for slightly less-wacky Republicans to switch parties.  (I mean, that’s the presumable quid pro quo, other than committee assignments etc.)  I guess the local Democrats hoping to win the seat have to be convinced to give up their ambitions, but we all know Democratic Party members have no personal ambitions…  Just seems like a golden opportunity to get 5-10 to switch sides, and maybe it snowballs….  BTW, I am not at all knee-jerk anti-Republican, but bargaining by destruction to me is just not playing by the agreed-upon rules.

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The Farallonic winds are blowing in the Bay Area

That is all… part of my quest to “name” the southwards bound winds that come through San Jose… nobody ever knows what to call them… Socal has Santa Ana winds, so why not Farallonic?

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Was the recession of 1991 a financial crisis?

Amongst policy-oriented economists this matters a lot, because the V shape of the recession and recovery in 1991 means that this was either (2) an important exception to the usual “financial crises recessions are really bad” or (2) it is irrelevant since it was not a financial crisis recession.  My colleague Alex Field today presented a seminar (the paper is here) arguing that the relevant banking “crisis” of the period, the savings and loan debacle, was more of a salacious great story, and much less of a macroeconomic event of consequence.  So the 1991 recession had nothing to do with a financial crisis.

In the course of the seminar, Alex presented some output gap numbers (how much GDP has been “lost” relative to what could have been if there had been no crisis).  For 1991 this number was very small, maybe 15% of one year’s GDP.  For the 2007-ongoing recession, this number is likely to be very large, more like 130% of one year’s GDP, according to Alex, about half of what he calculates (roughly) for the Great Depression (~300% of on year’s GDP!).

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Harsh words from Zéphirin Diabré regarding Blaise Compaoré

While this is quite a direct and sharp takedown, to me there are two things that are missing.  First, Diabré is not giving any indication (at least not being reported in the press) that he is lining up a major constituency other than disaffected youth.  You cannot govern with disaffected youth as your base, if your fundamental ideology is capitalism, neoliberalism, business as usual just a lot less corrupt, which is what Diabré has articulated as economic ideology.  What power center is supporting him?  The second thing, then, is he needs to offer a positive message that he stands for some major policy change that is going to benefit some major constituency.  Is he going to build even more dams, schools and health centers in rural areas? More rural roads?  Would appealing to that rural 70% fall on deaf ears?  (Why should they trust him, and rural people are notoriously hard to mobilize.)  Should he emphasize the shocking relative decline of Bobo-Dioulasso, and pursue a southwestern strategy?  Maybe he should pander direct to the military… they’ve never really been challenged by an insurgency the way Mali’s army was routed under ATT… maybe he should say, “We’re not prepared! Look at Kenya!”  I’m not a political scientist and don;t do polling and focus groups, so I’m just saying my opinion: a successful opposition candidate has to stand for something that is going to benefit a major constituency.  You use code words for that, but you make sure everyone understands the code words.

En même temps que tous les burkinabè, l’Opposition politique a pris connaissance, par la presse, de l’interview accordée par le Président Blaise Compaoré à « La Voix de l’Amérique ». En réponse à une question sur sa candidature en 2015 au cas où le peuple le demanderait, il a déclaré ce qui suit : « Non, je pense que c’est mon choix qui va être déterminant. Je sais aussi où sont les limites de mes forces et de mon intelligence. C’est à moi de choisir. Mais comme je dis, 2015, c’est encore loin ».

Les partis de l’Opposition constatent, une fois encore, que le Président du Faso, comme dans ses habitudes, traite des préoccupations majeures du peuple à l’extérieur du Burkina Faso. En effet on se souvient qu’en 2010 il avait traité avec le plus grand mépris le peuple burkinabè et même son parti le CDP en annonçant sa candidature à l’élection présidentielle à partir de Paris à la télévision « France 24 ». Récemment sur la question du Sénat c’était à Yamoussoukro qu’il en a parlé. Aujourd’hui c’est des Etats Unis d’Amérique et plus précisément de Washington que le Président Blaise Compaoré évoque des questions qui divisent son peuple, des questions qui risquent de mettre en cause l’unité nationale et la paix au Burkina Faso.

via Propos de Blaise Compaoré aux USA : La réponse de Zéphirin Diabré – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

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“A Game for Swallows” by Zeina Abirached

?????Decidedly 1% upper-crust, this graphic novel of life growing up in Beirut during the 1980s civil war is nevertheless quite moving and is beautifully designed, graphically speaking, though a little repetitious.  If graphic novels like this were cheap, I would be very enthusiastic, but the fact is they are often quite and expensive 2 hours of reading (of course, I check mine out at the library).  Unless you are a graphic artist and want to see Chucri’s hairy shoulders over and over (wonderfully done by the way) I wouldn’t necessarily buy it, but I would definitely borrow and enjoy.  A very nice review by New York Times is here.

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My town makes the big time… for the wrong reason

New York Times officially declares San Jose a “metropolis”… soon we’ll have a caped super-hero just like the other ones.  But ours will fight pensions?

San Jose now spends one-fifth of its $1.1 billion general fund on pensions and retiree health care, and the amount keeps rising. To free up the money, services have been cut, libraries and community centers closed, the number of city workers trimmed, salaries reduced, and new facilities left unused for lack of staff. From potholes to home burglaries, the city’s problems are growing.

Some of our neighbors are city workers, and ten years ago they used to be very up-front: work 20 years and get health care benefits for life!  I have noticed that they are very, very quiet about their benefits now.  It is a super-charged topic.  This line from the article, by the way, has got to be complete BS, or he has a very sad story that has nothing to do with him being a police officer… terrible reporting.  Police officer salaries are upwards of $100,000, and they retire on something like 90% of salary.  With overtime they make like $200,000 (it’s all public record on the San Jose Mercury News website).  If he has a $600,000 mortgage, he is paying maybe $3,000 a month… The cuts proposed are fairly modest.  If he has to sell his house, something completely unrelated to salary and pension is going on.

“I have to sell my house,” Officer Steve Brownlee said as he directed city workers toward a pile of debris. The only alternative, he said, was to work endless overtime to make up the difference. “I’d rather lose my house than do that,” he said.

See whole story: Struggling, San Jose Tests a Way to Cut Benefits – NYTimes.com.

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Starting Coursera course on R, computing for data analysis

First impressions:

  • Online lecture classes are just as boring as in-person lecture classes.  That’s after about 40 min.
  • An interesting question pops up: R core group… the people behind the curtain.  How does open-source make money for owners of S+?
  • Have to learn to not make references to actual date if going to repeat use videos (Peng at one point says “this year” referring to 2012)
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Sahel having an excellent season, second year in row

Last year was a very good agricultural season, and this year appears to be even better.  Hmmm…. I believe that 2000 years ago Joseph had good advice for what to do after a good season. But he wasn’t so good at inter-personal relations.

La campagne agropastorale, marquée par une installation tardive des pluies, est caractérisée par une pluviométrie faible et irrégulière de mai à mi juillet. Une reprise significative de la pluviométrie a été observée à partir de mi juillet et s’est intensifiée au cours du mois d’août occasionnant par endroits des inondations. Globalement, les pluies recueillies ont été assez bien réparties dans le temps et dans l’espace depuis le mois d’août. Même si, les cumuls saisonniers sont en général plus faibles que ceux de l’année passée exceptionnellement pluvieuse, ils sont supérieurs à la normale 1971-2000.

Sur le plan hydrologique, les débits des différents cours d’eau ont débuté leur évolution de manière timide. A partir de juillet, ils ont atteint des niveaux proches de ceux de l’an passé et supérieur à la moyenne. Le niveau de remplissage des barrages évolue normalement, ce qui présage de bonnes disponibilités d’eau pour la production agricole de contre-saison. Comme conséquences de la physionomie de la pluviométrie et de l’hydrologie, les semis ont globalement accusé des retards et des re-semis ont été observés en juin et juillet et par endroits en août. A partir de fin juillet, les cultures ont bénéficié d’assez bonnes conditions hydriques et de la mise à disposition des intrants pour leur croissance et développement végétatif. La majorité des cultures sont en phase de reproduction et maturation. Seuls les semis tardifs sont actuellement en phase de croissance végétative et ont besoin d’apports hydriques jusqu’en octobre 2013. Les rendements espérés seront équivalents à supérieurs à la moyenne 1971-2000 et inférieurs dans certaines localités du Nord Sénégal, des régions de Tillabéri, de Tahoua et l’Est de Zinder au Niger, les Wilaya du Gorgol et de Guidimakha de la Mauritanie et les régions du Lac et de Biltine au Tchad.

via Avis sur les perspectives agricoles et alimentaires 2013 / 2014 au Sahel et en Afrique de l’Ouest – leFaso.net.

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Djafar Héma in Bobo makes the news… not sure what the import of everything is… except he is Sunni

« Je n’ai rien contre Blaise, mais je suis contre ses faits. Notamment les tueries », propos de Djafar Héma pour entamer la question du sénat. Comme dit, comme prévu par lui lors de ses prêches, la communauté musulmane par la voie de ses représentants qui se sont exprimés ont dit oui au sénat. Il ne pouvait pas en être autrement selon Djafar. Pour mainte raison. Premièrement, parce que la Fédération des associations musulmane n’est pas entièrement faite d’expert en droit ou en démocratie. Deuxièmement, parce que les dirigeants de cette fédération ne peuvent pas dire la vérité à Blaise Compaoré. Ils ne font que lui dire ce qu’il veut entendre. Et selon lui, les leaders religieux musulmans ne demandent pas l’avis des fidèles ou des dignitaires religieux qui osent les contredire. A cause donc des mauvais conseillers, le Président du Faso est trompé selon Djafar. Un homme « à qui on fait croire qu’il devient intelligent lorsque sa tête grossie pour cause de maladie ».

via Sexe scandale à Bama : Le réquisitoire de Djafar Héma contre l’Imam Dao – leFaso.net.

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Electricité au Faso

Bon reportage de Patindé Amandine Konditamdé; j’aurai aimé savoir ce que le SONABEL dit comme réponse.

La SONABEL serait en train de consommer son capital à en croire Luc Adolphe Tiao, lors de l’émission télévisuelle « Dialogue avec le gouvernement » du mardi 17 septembre 2013 sur la RTB (radiodiffusion et télévision du Burkina). Dans la même lancée, il ajoute qu’il ne croit pas que le problème de délestage au Burkina se résolve un jour.  Est-ce à dire que les consommateurs doivent redouter une augmentation du prix du kilowatt (kw) dans les prochains mois ? Ce qui est certain, c’est que le pessimisme du Chef du gouvernement n’est pas pour rassurer. Un aveu d’impuissance qui inquiète. Et pour cause les gouvernants n’ont-ils pas vocation à trouver des solutions aux problèmes des populations, qu’à leur tenir ce genre de discours ?  Rappelons enfin que la SONABEL a été déclarée déficitaire lors d’une récente assemblée générale des sociétés d’Etat. Un audit a-t-il été fait pour situer les responsabilités et des sanctions ont-elles été prises comme cela devrait se faire pareille occasion ? Difficile d’y répondre par l’affirmative. Car pour l’heure c’est bien le service public de l’électricité qui continue de disjoncter !

via Electricité au Faso : Silence, on coupe ! – leFaso.net, l’actualité au Burkina Faso.

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Great interview with Ibrahim Coulibaly, who many thought the force behind 2002 Force Nouvelles that divided Ivory Coast

Hard to know how credible is the source. Ibrahim Coulibaly was killed in 2011 in Abidjan by Alassane Ouattara and Guillaume Soro’s forces, as they ostensibly tried to disarm his small group of commandos.  War is a messy business indeed.  One surprise is the apparent paltry sums needed to mount the rebellion… 60 m FCFA is one “gift” he mentions, about $150,000. Paul Collier often talked of the cost-effectiveness of Western military intervention, but as AQIM and allies have discovered… $100,000 operations that lead to $500 m operations of retaliation by West…well… hopefully they haven’t actually figured out that calculation… otherwise taxpayers are in big trouble.

Je suis rentré en France d’où j’ai rallié le Burkina Faso. C’est à partir du Burkina que j’ai commencé à appeler mes amis. Et nous avons mis un système en place, de telle sorte que quand il y a eu un cafouillage pendant les élections de 2000, nos amis sont allés attaquer la poudrière d’Akouédo pour libérer nos amis qui y étaient en prison. Nous avons usé de subterfuge pour les faire rentrer à Ouagadougou. Pendant ce temps, Guillaume Soro était encore à Abidjan. Il était candidat aux élections législatives à Port-Bouët avec Henriette Diabaté. Blaise Compaoré m’a permis de récupérer tous mes éléments qui étaient dans des situations clandestines à Abidjan. On a pu faire sortir Tuo Fozié, Adam’s, Wattao, Zaga-zaga et plein d’autres.C’est dans ce schéma d’infiltration que Guillaume Soro me joint pour me dire de faire quelque chose pour lui. Je lui réponds que, comme présentement je suis entouré de militaires et que les journalistes ne cessent de m’appeler pour avoir des interviews, des déclarations, viens t’occuper d’entretenir les journalistes. C’est ainsi que j’ai fait venir Guillaume Soro à mes côtés à Ouagadougou pour être mon porte-parole. C’est à partir de cet instant que nous avons monté le 19 septembre. J’ai préparé mes hommes sur près de 6 mois. J’ai fait deux mois et demi à Ouagadougou, mais pour la préparation, nous nous sommes retirés dans la forêt sur près de 6 mois.Avant de faire partir mes hommes sur le terrain, un ami m’a aidé financièrement et l’Etat burkinabé nous a aidés. Il nous a donné des villas. Après la formation, un ami libanais m’a envoyé 60 millions Fcfa. J’ai demandé à notre intendant, Dja Gao actuel commandant du commando d’Abobo de faire des enveloppes de 300.000 Fcfa chacune pour tous les éléments qui devaient rentrer en Côte d’Ivoire. Et je les ai divisé en trois grands groupes parce qu’il devait avoir trois attaques simultanées : Abidjan, Bouaké et Korhogo.

via Révélations. Comment la rébellion a été montée contre Gbagbo.

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